FC Cartagena vs Real Murcia Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

FC Cartagena
Final Score
1 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Real Murcia
Kick-off 18:30 Stadium Estadio Municipal Cartagonova

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

FC Cartagena opened at 0 against Real Murcia in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward FC Cartagena from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.29 / 1.31
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
FC Cartagena -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.27
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.27 AH points more toward Real Murcia than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Real Murcia +0.25
@ 2.68
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.27
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.72
Price Advantage
+55.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
0
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:28
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.75 / 1.91 -0.25 1.90 / 2.56 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.84 / 1.95 -0.25 1.99 / 2.62 — -0.25
Bet365 0 1.78 / 2.02 -0.25 1.95 / 2.68 -0.25 -0.25
1xBet 0 1.75 / 1.91 -0.25 1.92 / 2.56 -0.25 -0.25
BetVictor 0 1.78 / 1.90 -0.25 1.93 / 2.54 -0.25 -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.70 9.40
-1.75 6.20 9.20
-1.50 4.70 7.10
-1.25 4.20 6.54
-1.00 3.72 5.95
-0.75 2.69 3.84
-0.25 1.92 2.56
0 1.59 2.15
+0.25 1.40 1.75
+0.75 1.18 1.36
+1.00 1.07 1.20
+1.25 1.05 1.15
+1.50 1.04 1.12

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 7.00
-1.25 3.90 6.40
-1.00 3.45 5.90
-0.75 2.60 3.90
-0.50 2.20 3.10
-0.25 1.95 2.68
0 1.60 2.30
+0.25 1.45 1.85
+0.50 1.35 1.65
+0.75 1.24 1.48
+1.00 1.13 1.30
+1.25 1.12 1.24
+1.50 1.10 1.21

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.73 2.85
-0.50 2.24 2.79
-0.25 1.93 2.54
0 1.61 2.13
+0.25 1.44 1.75
+0.50 1.37 1.55
+0.75 1.35 1.38

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.20 9.20
-1.50 4.70 7.10
-1.25 4.20 6.55
-1.00 3.72 5.95
-0.75 2.69 3.84
-0.25 1.90 2.56
0 1.59 2.15
+0.25 1.40 1.73
+0.75 1.18 1.36
+1.00 1.07 1.20
+1.25 1.05 1.15
+1.50 1.04 1.12

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.65 3.90
-0.75 2.72 3.06
-0.50 2.29 3.03
-0.25 1.99 2.62
0 1.65 2.23
+0.25 1.46 1.83
+0.50 1.36 1.61
+0.75 1.34 1.43
+1.00 1.22 1.26
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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