Alcorcon vs Gimnastic Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Alcorcon
Final Score
3 – 0
(HT 3-0)
Gimnastic
Kick-off 10:00 Stadium Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Alcorcon opened at -0.25 against Gimnastic in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.21
Alcorcon -0.21

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.42 / 1.18
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Alcorcon -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward Gimnastic than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Gimnastic +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.96
Price Advantage
+53.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:30
Opening
-0.25
00:15
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.78 / 2.70 -0.25 1.75 / 2.78 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.81 / 2.91 -0.25 1.81 / 2.91 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.82 / 2.85 -0.25 1.80 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.80 / 2.70 -0.25 1.76 / 2.81 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.96 7.60
-1.25 3.50 7.09
-1.00 3.08 6.55
-0.75 2.35 4.20
-0.25 1.76 2.81
0 1.48 2.39
+0.25 1.33 1.91
+0.75 1.15 1.47
+1.00 1.05 1.28
+1.25 1.04 1.22
+1.50 1.03 1.17

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.55 7.00
-1.00 3.10 6.60
-0.75 2.42 4.40
-0.50 1.90 3.45
-0.25 1.80 3.00
0 1.50 2.50
+0.25 1.38 2.00
+0.50 1.30 1.90
+0.75 1.20 1.52
+1.00 1.11 1.35
+1.25 1.10 1.27

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.98 7.50
-1.25 3.50 7.10
-1.00 3.08 6.55
-0.75 2.38 4.20
-0.25 1.75 2.78
0 1.48 2.39
+0.25 1.34 1.88
+0.75 1.15 1.46
+1.00 1.05 1.28
+1.25 1.04 1.22
+1.50 1.03 1.17

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.07 3.33
-0.25 1.81 2.91
0 1.51 2.50
+0.25 1.37 1.99
+0.50 1.29 1.72
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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