Pontevedra vs Cacereño Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Pontevedra
Oct 18, 2026 - 14:00
1.38 1.22
Cacereño
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Pontevedra opened at -0.25 against Cacereño in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
Pontevedra -0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Pontevedra -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.11
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.11 AH points more toward Cacereño than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Cacereño +0.25
@ 2.60
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.11
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.88
Price Advantage
+38.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.85 / 2.52 -0.25 1.85 / 2.52 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.98 / 2.60 -0.25 1.98 / 2.60 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.87 / 2.52 -0.25 1.87 / 2.52 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
xG 1.38 / 1.22 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.85
Pontevedra @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.14
Pontevedra @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.85 vs 2.14
Market price is 13.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.80 8.70
-1.50 4.45 6.65
-1.25 4.00 6.15
-1.00 3.50 5.70
-0.75 2.56 3.72
-0.25 1.87 2.52
0 1.59 2.15
+0.25 1.41 1.79
+0.75 1.20 1.40
+1.00 1.08 1.22
+1.25 1.06 1.17
+1.50 1.05 1.14

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.50 6.80
-1.25 4.10 6.40
-1.00 3.55 5.90
-0.75 2.68 3.80
-0.50 2.25 3.00
-0.25 1.98 2.60
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.48 1.82
+0.50 1.38 1.62
+0.75 1.25 1.45
+1.00 1.13 1.27
+1.25 1.12 1.23
+1.50 1.10 1.19

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.80 8.70
-1.50 4.45 6.65
-1.25 4.00 6.15
-1.00 3.50 5.70
-0.75 2.56 3.72
-0.25 1.85 2.52
0 1.59 2.15
+0.25 1.41 1.77
+0.75 1.20 1.40
+1.00 1.08 1.22
+1.25 1.06 1.17
+1.50 1.05 1.14
Primary Bets
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