Barakaldo vs Mirandes Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Barakaldo
Oct 17, 2026 - 14:30
1.37 1.23
Mirandes
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
-0.25
Toward Home · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Barakaldo opened at 0 against Mirandes in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Barakaldo from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Barakaldo -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.13
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.13 AH points more toward Mirandes than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Mirandes +0.25
@ 2.53
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.13
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.86
Price Advantage
+36.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.83 / 1.83 -0.25 1.95 / 2.41 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.01 / 2.53 -0.25 2.01 / 2.53 — 0
Bet365 0 1.90 / 1.90 0 1.72 / 2.08 — 0
1xBet 0 1.83 / 1.83 -0.25 1.97 / 2.41 — -0.25
BetVictor -0.25 1.96 / 2.47 -0.25 1.96 / 2.47 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.12
xG 1.37 / 1.23 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.01
Barakaldo @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.16
Barakaldo @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.01 vs 2.16
Market price is 6.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.80 10.00
-1.75 6.45 8.90
-1.50 4.85 6.50
-1.25 4.34 5.95
-1.00 3.85 5.40
-0.75 2.74 3.50
-0.25 1.97 2.41
0 1.65 2.05
+0.25 1.45 1.71
+0.75 1.22 1.35
+1.00 1.09 1.18
+1.25 1.07 1.14
+1.50 1.05 1.11

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.50 6.00
-1.25 4.15 5.75
-1.00 3.70 5.25
-0.75 2.75 3.45
-0.50 2.30 2.75
-0.25 2.02 2.42
0 1.72 2.08
+0.25 1.52 1.78
+0.50 1.42 1.60
+0.75 1.30 1.42
+1.00 1.16 1.26
+1.25 1.14 1.22
+1.50 1.12 1.19

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.96 2.47
0 1.64 2.08
+0.25 1.46 1.72

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.45 8.90
-1.50 4.85 6.50
-1.25 4.35 5.95
-1.00 3.85 5.40
-0.75 2.74 3.50
-0.25 1.95 2.41
0 1.65 2.05
+0.25 1.45 1.69
+0.75 1.22 1.35
+1.00 1.09 1.18
+1.25 1.07 1.14
+1.50 1.05 1.11

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.31 2.92
-0.25 2.01 2.53
0 1.67 2.15
+0.25 1.47 1.79
+0.50 1.37 1.58
Primary Bets
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