UD Ourense vs Barakaldo Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

UD Ourense
Oct 10, 2026 - 16:45
1.27 1.33
Barakaldo
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

UD Ourense opened at -0.25 against Barakaldo in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
UD Ourense -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward Barakaldo than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
UD Ourense -0.25
@ 3.06
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.45
Price Advantage
+24.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.38 / 1.94 -0.25 2.97 / 1.61 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.07 / 1.64 -0.25 3.06 / 1.64 — 0
Bet365 0 2.02 / 1.78 -0.25 2.68 / 1.82 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.40 / 1.94 -0.25 2.97 / 1.61 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
xG 1.27 / 1.33 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.06
UD Ourense @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.45
UD Ourense @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.06 vs 2.45
Market price is 24.9% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.65 4.49
-1.50 7.90 3.50
-1.25 7.40 3.08
-1.00 6.95 2.74
-0.75 4.45 2.14
-0.25 2.97 1.61
0 2.59 1.39
+0.25 2.07 1.30
+0.75 1.59 1.14
+1.00 1.37 1.04
+1.25 1.28 1.03
+1.50 1.22 1.02
+1.75 1.13 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 4.25
-1.25 6.40 3.80
-1.00 5.90 3.45
-0.75 3.90 2.60
-0.50 3.10 2.20
-0.25 2.68 1.82
0 2.30 1.60
+0.25 1.98 1.45
+0.50 1.65 1.35
+0.75 1.48 1.24
+1.00 1.30 1.13
+1.25 1.25 1.12
+1.50 1.21 1.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.70 4.50
-1.50 7.90 3.50
-1.25 7.40 3.08
-1.00 6.95 2.74
-0.75 4.45 2.12
-0.25 2.97 1.61
0 2.59 1.39
+0.25 2.07 1.30
+0.75 1.58 1.14
+1.00 1.37 1.04
+1.25 1.28 1.03
+1.50 1.22 1.02
+1.75 1.13 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 3.06 1.64
0 2.68 1.42
+0.25 2.17 1.33
Primary Bets
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