Pontevedra vs Mérida AD Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Pontevedra
Oct 11, 2026 - 14:30
1.45 1.15
Mérida AD
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Pontevedra opened at -0.25 against Mérida AD in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.27
Pontevedra -0.27

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Pontevedra -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward Pontevedra than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Mérida AD +0.25
@ 2.72
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.02
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.02
Price Advantage
+34.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.73 / 2.78 -0.25 1.80 / 2.69 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.91 / 2.72 -0.25 1.91 / 2.72 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.75 / 2.78 -0.25 1.82 / 2.69 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.27
xG 1.45 / 1.15 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.91
Pontevedra @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.98
Pontevedra @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.91 vs 1.98
Market price is 3.5% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.14 8.90
-1.50 4.00 6.85
-1.25 3.58 6.40
-1.00 3.20 5.95
-0.75 2.43 3.96
-0.25 1.82 2.69
0 1.52 2.29
+0.25 1.36 1.84
+0.75 1.17 1.44
+1.00 1.07 1.26
+1.25 1.05 1.21
+1.50 1.04 1.17

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.15 8.90
-1.50 4.00 6.85
-1.25 3.58 6.40
-1.00 3.20 5.95
-0.75 2.43 3.96
-0.25 1.80 2.69
0 1.52 2.29
+0.25 1.36 1.82
+0.75 1.17 1.44
+1.00 1.07 1.26
+1.25 1.05 1.21
+1.50 1.04 1.17

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.20 3.13
-0.25 1.91 2.72
0 1.58 2.31
+0.25 1.42 1.88
+0.50 1.32 1.64
Primary Bets
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