Athletic Club II vs Real Unión Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Athletic Club II
Oct 11, 2026 - 10:00
1.28 1.32
Real Unión
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Athletic Club II opened at -0.25 against Real Unión in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Athletic Club II -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward Real Unión than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Real Unión +0.25
@ 2.75
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.70
Price Advantage
+61.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.79 / 2.59 -0.25 1.79 / 2.59 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.82 / 2.75 -0.25 1.82 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.81 / 2.59 -0.25 1.81 / 2.59 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
xG 1.28 / 1.32 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.79
Athletic Club II @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.42
Athletic Club II @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.79 vs 2.42
Market price is 26.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.09 8.70
-1.50 3.94 6.55
-1.25 3.50 6.05
-1.00 3.08 5.55
-0.75 2.41 3.76
-0.25 1.81 2.59
0 1.54 2.25
+0.25 1.39 1.85
+0.75 1.19 1.45
+1.00 1.08 1.28
+1.25 1.06 1.22
+1.50 1.05 1.17

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.80 6.80
-1.25 3.45 6.40
-1.00 3.10 5.90
-0.75 2.42 4.00
-0.50 2.08 3.30
-0.25 1.82 2.75
0 1.55 2.38
+0.25 1.42 1.98
+0.50 1.32 1.72
+0.75 1.23 1.52
+1.00 1.13 1.35
+1.25 1.12 1.30
+1.50 1.10 1.25

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.10 8.70
-1.50 3.94 6.55
-1.25 3.50 6.05
-1.00 3.08 5.55
-0.75 2.41 3.76
-0.25 1.79 2.59
0 1.54 2.25
+0.25 1.39 1.83
+0.75 1.19 1.45
+1.00 1.08 1.28
+1.25 1.06 1.22
+1.50 1.05 1.17
Primary Bets
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