Osasuna vs Racing Santander Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Osasuna
Oct 18, 2026 - 12:00
1.42 1.41
Racing Santander
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Osasuna opened at -0.25 against Racing Santander in the La Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.01
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Osasuna -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.24
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.24 AH points more toward Racing Santander than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Racing Santander +0.25
@ 3.15
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.24
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.76
Price Advantage
+79.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.63 / 3.15 -0.25 1.63 / 3.15 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.68 / 3.10 -0.25 1.70 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.72 / 3.15 -0.25 1.72 / 3.15 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.63 / 3.05 -0.25 1.66 / 2.95 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.01
xG 1.42 / 1.41 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.63
Osasuna @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.32
Osasuna @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.63 vs 2.32
Market price is 29.7% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.22 7.40
-1.25 2.96 6.95
-1.00 2.62 6.70
-0.75 2.13 4.57
-0.25 1.72 3.15
0 1.46 3.02
+0.25 1.30 2.30
+0.75 1.14 1.67
+1.00 1.05 1.50
+1.25 1.04 1.41
+1.50 1.03 1.31

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 2.68 6.60
-0.75 2.20 4.40
-0.50 1.98 3.55
-0.25 1.70 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 2.10
+0.50 1.27 1.88
+0.75 1.20 1.65
+1.00 1.11 1.45

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.18 4.30
-0.50 1.89 3.35
-0.25 1.66 2.95
0 1.43 2.56
+0.25 1.33 2.05
+0.50 1.26 1.78
+0.75 1.17 1.59

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.22 7.40
-1.25 2.90 6.95
-1.00 2.62 6.70
-0.75 2.13 4.60
-0.25 1.63 3.15
0 1.39 2.77
+0.25 1.30 2.17
+0.75 1.14 1.67
+1.00 1.05 1.50
+1.25 1.04 1.38
+1.50 1.03 1.31
Primary Bets
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