Celta Vigo vs Alaves Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Celta Vigo
Oct 18, 2026 - 14:15
0.79 1.36
Alaves
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Celta Vigo opened at -0.25 against Alaves in the La Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.51
Celta Vigo +0.51

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Celta Vigo -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.76
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.76 AH points more toward Alaves than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Alaves +0.25
@ 3.15
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.76
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.34
Price Advantage
+135.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.70 / 3.15 -0.25 1.70 / 3.15 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.70 / 3.10 -0.25 1.70 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.79 / 3.15 -0.25 1.79 / 3.15 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.66 / 3.15 -0.25 1.66 / 3.15 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.51
xG 0.79 / 1.36 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.70
Celta Vigo @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
3.95
Celta Vigo @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.70 vs 3.95
Market price is 57.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.75 9.10
-1.25 3.36 8.50
-1.00 2.94 8.00
-0.75 2.28 4.87
-0.25 1.79 3.15
0 1.51 2.85
+0.25 1.33 2.19
+0.75 1.14 1.57
+1.00 1.05 1.35
+1.25 1.02 1.28
+1.50 1.02 1.21

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.25 4.65
-0.50 2.00 3.55
-0.25 1.70 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 2.10
+0.50 1.27 1.85
+0.75 1.18 1.62

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.25 4.80
-0.50 1.92 3.60
-0.25 1.66 3.15
0 1.40 2.66
+0.25 1.29 2.05
+0.50 1.23 1.76
+0.75 1.13 1.55

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.75 9.10
-1.25 3.34 8.60
-1.00 2.94 8.00
-0.75 2.28 4.90
-0.25 1.70 3.15
0 1.46 2.76
+0.25 1.33 2.08
+0.75 1.15 1.57
+1.00 1.05 1.35
+1.25 1.03 1.27
+1.50 1.02 1.21
Primary Bets
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