Getafe vs Malaga Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Getafe
Final Score
1 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Malaga
Kick-off 12:00 Stadium Coliseum Alfonso Pérez

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Getafe opened at -0.25 against Malaga in the La Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.22
Getafe +0.22

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 0.97 / 1.22
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Getafe -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.47
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.47 AH points more toward Malaga than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Malaga +0.25
@ 3.20
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.47
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.52
Price Advantage
+110.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:59
Opening
-0.25
09:38
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.78 / 3.04 -0.25 1.75 / 3.20 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.82 / 3.10 -0.25 1.80 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.90 / 3.20 -0.25 1.84 / 3.20 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.83 / 3.15 -0.25 1.83 / 3.20 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.75 / 3.05 -0.25 1.72 / 3.20 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.15 9.00
-1.25 3.67 8.55
-1.00 3.22 8.20
-0.75 2.42 4.92
-0.25 1.84 3.20
0 1.52 2.81
+0.25 1.32 2.12
+0.75 1.14 1.51
+1.00 1.04 1.30
+1.25 1.02 1.24
+1.50 1.02 1.18

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.42 4.80
-0.50 2.08 3.55
-0.25 1.80 3.10
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.35 2.05
+0.50 1.27 1.72
+0.75 1.18 1.52

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.43 5.05
-0.50 2.01 3.70
-0.25 1.72 3.20
0 1.41 2.62
+0.25 1.29 1.97
+0.50 1.22 1.68
+0.75 1.12 1.48

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.15 3.70
-0.25 1.83 3.20
+0.25 1.38 2.02
+0.50 1.30 1.75

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.15 9.00
-1.25 3.65 8.60
-1.00 3.22 8.20
-0.75 2.42 4.95
-0.25 1.75 3.20
0 1.47 2.73
+0.25 1.32 2.01
+0.75 1.14 1.51
+1.00 1.04 1.30
+1.25 1.03 1.23
+1.50 1.02 1.18
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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