Las Palmas vs Castellón Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Las Palmas
Oct 17, 2026 - 19:00
1.52 1.49
Castellón
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Las Palmas opened at -0.25 against Castellón in the Segunda División. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.03
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Las Palmas -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.22
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.22 AH points more toward Castellón than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Las Palmas -0.25
@ 3.18
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.22
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.28
Price Advantage
+39.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.84 / 1.66 -0.25 2.84 / 1.66 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.01 / 1.77 -0.25 2.98 / 1.79 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.00 / 1.72 -0.25 3.00 / 1.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.18 / 1.66 -0.25 3.18 / 1.66 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.03
xG 1.52 / 1.49 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.98
Las Palmas @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.28
Las Palmas @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.98 vs 2.28
Market price is 30.7% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 4.14
-1.50 6.80 3.28
-1.25 6.39 2.97
-1.00 5.90 2.62
-0.75 4.05 2.14
-0.25 3.18 1.66
0 2.62 1.52
+0.25 2.02 1.37
+0.75 1.57 1.17
+1.00 1.38 1.07
+1.25 1.30 1.05
+1.50 1.25 1.04

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 3.55
-1.25 6.60 3.30
-1.00 6.25 2.85
-0.75 4.15 2.30
-0.50 3.45 2.02
-0.25 3.00 1.75
0 2.50 1.50
+0.25 2.05 1.38
+0.50 1.78 1.30
+0.75 1.60 1.22
+1.00 1.40 1.12
+1.25 1.32 1.11
+1.50 1.27 1.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.00 4.15
-1.50 6.80 3.28
-1.25 6.40 2.97
-1.00 5.90 2.62
-0.75 4.05 2.14
-0.25 2.84 1.66
0 2.54 1.47
+0.25 2.02 1.34
+0.75 1.57 1.17
+1.00 1.38 1.07
+1.25 1.30 1.05
+1.50 1.25 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.39 2.06
-0.25 2.98 1.79
0 2.57 1.52
+0.25 2.07 1.40
+0.50 1.81 1.32
Primary Bets
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