Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Celta de Vigo II
Oct 10, 2026 - 19:00
1.16 1.08
Real Sociedad II
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
+0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 6 books · 50% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Celta de Vigo II opened at -0.25 against Real Sociedad II in the Segunda División. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 6 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Celta de Vigo II -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Real Sociedad II than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Real Sociedad II +0.25
@ 2.65
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.78
Price Advantage
+48.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 6 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.86 / 2.48 -0.25 1.86 / 2.48 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.50 / 1.87 +0.25 1.50 / 1.87 — 0
Bet365 0 1.75 / 2.05 0 1.75 / 2.05 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.96 / 2.48 -0.25 1.96 / 2.48 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.52 / 1.87 +0.25 1.60 / 1.78 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.88 / 2.50 -0.25 1.91 / 2.44 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
xG 1.16 / 1.08 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.86
Celta de Vigo II @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.28
Celta de Vigo II @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.86 vs 2.28
Market price is 18.4% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.10 7.70
-1.50 4.00 5.85
-1.25 3.58 5.40
-1.00 3.20 4.95
-0.75 2.47 3.43
-0.25 1.96 2.48
0 1.68 2.24
+0.25 1.44 1.88
+0.75 1.23 1.43
+1.00 1.11 1.26
+1.25 1.09 1.21
+1.50 1.07 1.17
+1.75 1.02 1.10

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.40 5.50
-1.25 4.10 5.25
-1.00 3.55 4.50
-0.75 2.75 3.45
-0.50 2.35 2.75
-0.25 2.05 2.38
0 1.75 2.05
+0.25 1.55 1.75
+0.50 1.42 1.58
+0.75 1.30 1.42
+1.00 1.19 1.27
+1.25 1.16 1.23
+1.50 1.15 1.20

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.91 2.44
0 1.63 2.10
+0.25 1.47 1.77

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.87 3.45
-0.50 2.40 2.80
-0.25 2.10 2.42
+0.25 1.60 1.78
+0.50 1.47 1.60
+0.75 1.34 1.45

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.10 7.70
-1.50 4.00 5.85
-1.25 3.58 5.40
-1.00 3.20 4.95
-0.75 2.47 3.44
-0.25 1.86 2.48
0 1.63 2.17
+0.25 1.44 1.79
+0.75 1.23 1.43
+1.00 1.11 1.26
+1.25 1.09 1.21
+1.50 1.07 1.17
+1.75 1.02 1.10

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.70 3.80
-0.50 2.28 3.03
-0.25 1.98 2.65
0 1.67 2.25
+0.25 1.50 1.87
+0.50 1.39 1.65
+0.75 1.27 1.48
Primary Bets
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