Las Palmas vs Valladolid Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Las Palmas
Oct 04, 2026 - 16:30
1.22 1.02
Valladolid
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Las Palmas opened at -0.25 against Valladolid in the Segunda División. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.17
Las Palmas -0.17

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Las Palmas -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.08
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.08 AH points more toward Valladolid than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Valladolid +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.08
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.90
Price Advantage
+57.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.79 / 2.72 -0.25 1.80 / 2.72 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.91 / 2.92 -0.25 1.91 / 2.92 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.82 / 3.00 -0.25 1.85 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.88 / 2.72 -0.25 1.89 / 2.72 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.93 / 2.85 -0.25 1.93 / 2.85 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.80 / 2.73 -0.25 1.81 / 2.72 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.17
xG 1.22 / 1.02 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.91
Las Palmas @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.11
Las Palmas @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.91 vs 2.11
Market price is 9.5% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.10 9.20
-1.50 3.96 6.95
-1.25 3.50 6.45
-1.00 3.14 5.95
-0.75 2.43 3.97
-0.25 1.89 2.72
0 1.59 2.42
+0.25 1.37 1.95
+0.75 1.17 1.44
+1.00 1.07 1.27
+1.25 1.05 1.22
+1.50 1.04 1.17

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.30 6.80
-0.75 2.50 4.40
-0.50 2.10 3.45
-0.25 1.85 3.00
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.38 1.95
+0.50 1.30 1.70
+0.75 1.20 1.50
+1.00 1.10 1.32

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.81 2.72
0 1.53 2.30
+0.25 1.38 1.86

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.25 3.30
-0.25 1.93 2.85
+0.25 1.45 1.91
+0.50 1.36 1.67

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.10 9.20
-1.50 3.96 6.95
-1.25 3.50 6.45
-1.00 3.14 5.95
-0.75 2.43 3.98
-0.25 1.80 2.72
0 1.54 2.35
+0.25 1.37 1.85
+0.75 1.17 1.44
+1.00 1.07 1.27
+1.25 1.05 1.22
+1.50 1.04 1.17

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.63 4.40
-0.50 2.22 3.37
-0.25 1.91 2.92
0 1.58 2.44
+0.25 1.42 1.94
+0.50 1.33 1.69
+0.75 1.22 1.50
Primary Bets
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