Sabadell vs Oviedo Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Sabadell
Final Score
3 – 1
(HT 2-0)
Oviedo
Kick-off 12:00 Stadium Nova Creu Alta

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Sabadell opened at -0.25 against Oviedo in the Segunda División. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
Sabadell +0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.04 / 1.20
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Sabadell -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.39
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.39 AH points more toward Oviedo than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Oviedo +0.25
@ 3.19
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.39
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.59
Price Advantage
+100.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:58
Opening
-0.25
09:56
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
12:01
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.86 / 2.68 -0.25 1.77 / 2.89 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.04 / 2.82 -0.25 1.92 / 3.19 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.02 / 2.60 -0.25 1.85 / 3.10 -0.25 0
1xBet 0 1.65 / 2.30 -0.25 1.87 / 2.89 -0.25 -0.25
Betano -0.25 1.98 / 2.80 -0.25 1.88 / 3.10 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.95 / 2.59 -0.25 1.80 / 2.91 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 8.20
-1.25 3.80 7.65
-1.00 3.28 7.10
-0.75 2.44 4.39
-0.25 1.87 2.89
0 1.55 2.53
+0.25 1.33 1.97
+0.75 1.14 1.44
+1.00 1.04 1.25
+1.25 1.02 1.19
+1.50 1.02 1.15

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.55 7.00
-0.75 2.60 4.80
-0.50 2.15 3.55
-0.25 1.85 3.10
0 1.50 2.50
+0.25 1.35 1.95
+0.50 1.27 1.68
+0.75 1.18 1.48
+1.00 1.10 1.27

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.80 2.91
0 1.48 2.41
+0.25 1.34 1.87

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.22 3.60
-0.25 1.88 3.10
+0.25 1.39 1.95
+0.50 1.31 1.70

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 8.20
-1.25 3.80 7.70
-1.00 3.28 7.10
-0.75 2.44 4.40
-0.25 1.77 2.89
0 1.50 2.45
+0.25 1.33 1.88
+0.75 1.14 1.44
+1.00 1.04 1.25
+1.25 1.02 1.19
+1.50 1.02 1.15

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.75 5.05
-0.50 2.26 3.75
-0.25 1.92 3.19
0 1.55 2.61
+0.25 1.39 1.99
+0.50 1.30 1.70
+0.75 1.20 1.50
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More