Leganes vs Granada CF Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Leganes
Final Score
3 – 2
(HT 2-1)
Granada CF
Kick-off 19:00 Stadium Municipal de Butarque

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Leganes opened at -0.25 against Granada CF in the Segunda División. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.12 / 1.12
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Leganes -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward Granada CF than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Granada CF +0.25
@ 2.93
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.71
Price Advantage
+71.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
12:56
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.67 / 3.15 -0.25 1.74 / 2.93 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.53 / 2.66 0 1.53 / 2.66 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.75 / 3.15 -0.25 1.82 / 2.93 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.85 / 3.05 -0.25 1.85 / 3.05 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.77 / 2.91 -0.25 1.77 / 2.91 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.98 8.10
-1.25 3.50 7.65
-1.00 3.08 7.10
-0.75 2.36 4.49
-0.25 1.82 2.93
0 1.52 2.62
+0.25 1.32 2.02
+0.75 1.13 1.47
+1.00 1.04 1.28
+1.25 1.02 1.22
+1.50 1.02 1.17

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.77 2.91
0 1.47 2.44
+0.25 1.34 1.90

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.18 3.55
-0.25 1.85 3.05
+0.25 1.40 2.00
+0.50 1.32 1.72

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.98 8.10
-1.25 3.50 7.70
-1.00 3.08 7.10
-0.75 2.36 4.50
-0.25 1.74 2.93
0 1.47 2.54
+0.25 1.32 1.91
+0.75 1.14 1.47
+1.00 1.04 1.28
+1.25 1.03 1.22
+1.50 1.02 1.17

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.66 5.06
-0.50 2.21 3.77
-0.25 1.88 3.23
0 1.53 2.66
+0.25 1.38 2.03
+0.50 1.30 1.74
+0.75 1.20 1.53
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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