Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Final Score
4 – 1
(HT 3-0)
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Kick-off 16:30

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Wiślanie Jaśkowice opened at -0.25 against Siarka Tarnobrzeg in the III Liga - Group 4. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.35 / 1.25
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Wiślanie Jaśkowice -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.16
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.16 AH points more toward Siarka Tarnobrzeg than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Siarka Tarnobrzeg +0.25
@ 2.85
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.16
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.82
Price Advantage
+56.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
06:01
Opening
-0.25
13:39
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.73 / 2.70 -0.25 1.73 / 2.70 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.81 / 2.61 -0.25 1.81 / 2.61 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.70 / 2.85 -0.25 1.70 / 2.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.75 / 2.70 -0.25 1.75 / 2.70 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 6.75
-1.00 2.88 5.75
-0.75 2.28 3.90
-0.25 1.75 2.70
0 1.50 2.34
+0.25 1.36 1.92
+0.75 1.18 1.50
+1.00 1.07 1.32
+1.50 1.04 1.21

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.30 6.60
-1.25 2.85 6.00
-1.00 2.60 5.75
-0.75 2.15 4.00
-0.50 1.95 3.30
-0.25 1.70 2.85
0 1.50 2.50
+0.25 1.40 2.10
+0.50 1.32 1.85
+0.75 1.23 1.68
+1.00 1.14 1.48
+1.25 1.12 1.40
+1.50 1.11 1.32

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 6.75
-1.00 2.88 5.75
-0.75 2.28 3.90
-0.25 1.73 2.70
0 1.50 2.34
+0.25 1.36 1.90
+0.75 1.18 1.50
+1.00 1.07 1.32
+1.50 1.04 1.21

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.05 2.94
-0.25 1.81 2.61
0 1.54 2.28
+0.25 1.40 1.90
+0.50 1.32 1.67
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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