Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs SKU Amstetten Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Oct 17, 2026 - 13:30
1.26 1.34
SKU Amstetten
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
+0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz opened at -0.25 against SKU Amstetten in the 2. Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.32
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.32 AH points more toward SKU Amstetten than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
SKU Amstetten +0.25
@ 1.99
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.32
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+19.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.32 / 1.89 -0.25 2.32 / 1.89 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.82 / 1.52 +0.25 1.82 / 1.52 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.37 / 1.89 -0.25 2.37 / 1.89 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
xG 1.26 / 1.34 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.32
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.48
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.32 vs 2.48
Market price is 6.5% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.50 7.10
-1.75 6.60 4.96
-1.50 5.15 3.94
-1.25 4.80 3.58
-1.00 4.40 3.20
-0.75 3.14 2.49
-0.25 2.37 1.89
0 2.07 1.68
+0.25 1.75 1.52
+0.75 1.42 1.27
+1.00 1.26 1.14
+1.25 1.21 1.12
+1.50 1.17 1.10
+1.75 1.11 1.05

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.60 4.95
-1.50 5.15 3.94
-1.25 4.80 3.58
-1.00 4.40 3.20
-0.75 3.14 2.49
-0.25 2.32 1.89
0 2.07 1.68
+0.25 1.75 1.49
+0.75 1.42 1.27
+1.00 1.26 1.14
+1.25 1.21 1.12
+1.50 1.17 1.10
+1.75 1.11 1.05

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.47 2.66
-0.50 2.82 2.26
-0.25 2.49 1.99
0 2.14 1.69
+0.25 1.82 1.52
+0.50 1.63 1.41
+0.75 1.46 1.29
Primary Bets
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