SV Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna (Am) Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

SV Kapfenberg
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Austria Vienna (Am)
Kick-off 16:30 Stadium Franz-Fekete-Stadion

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

SV Kapfenberg opened at -0.25 against Austria Vienna (Am) in the 2. Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.28 / 1.32
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
SV Kapfenberg -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward Austria Vienna (Am) than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Austria Vienna (Am) +0.25
@ 1.99
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.70
Price Advantage
+17.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
09:16
Opening
-0.25
13:38
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.38 / 1.85 -0.25 2.38 / 1.85 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.87 / 1.52 +0.25 1.87 / 1.52 — 0
Bet365 0 2.10 / 1.70 0 2.10 / 1.70 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.43 / 1.85 -0.25 2.43 / 1.85 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.45 / 1.91 -0.25 2.45 / 1.91 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.43 / 1.90 -0.25 2.43 / 1.90 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.80 6.75
-1.75 6.76 4.79
-1.50 5.30 3.80
-1.25 4.90 3.42
-1.00 4.50 3.08
-0.75 3.20 2.43
-0.25 2.43 1.85
0 2.12 1.65
+0.25 1.78 1.50
+0.75 1.44 1.26
+1.00 1.28 1.13
+1.25 1.23 1.11
+1.50 1.19 1.09
+1.75 1.11 1.04

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 5.25
-1.50 5.75 4.00
-1.25 5.25 3.55
-1.00 4.50 3.30
-0.75 3.45 2.60
-0.50 2.75 2.20
-0.25 2.42 1.98
0 2.10 1.70
+0.25 1.82 1.52
+0.50 1.65 1.42
+0.75 1.48 1.30
+1.00 1.32 1.19
+1.25 1.27 1.16
+1.50 1.23 1.14
+1.75 1.16 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.43 1.90
0 2.10 1.63
+0.25 1.78 1.47

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.45 1.91
+0.25 1.83 1.52

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.75 4.80
-1.50 5.30 3.80
-1.25 4.90 3.42
-1.00 4.50 3.08
-0.75 3.20 2.43
-0.25 2.38 1.85
0 2.12 1.65
+0.25 1.78 1.47
+0.75 1.44 1.26
+1.00 1.28 1.13
+1.25 1.23 1.11
+1.50 1.19 1.09
+1.75 1.12 1.04

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.63 2.67
-0.50 2.93 2.27
-0.25 2.58 1.99
0 2.21 1.69
+0.25 1.87 1.52
+0.50 1.66 1.41
+0.75 1.49 1.29
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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