Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Farul Constanta
Oct 10, 2026 - 17:00
1.77 1.54
Petrolul Ploiesti
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Farul Constanta opened at -0.25 against Petrolul Ploiesti in the Liga I. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.21
Farul Constanta -0.21

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Farul Constanta -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward Petrolul Ploiesti than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Petrolul Ploiesti +0.25
@ 2.62
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.96
Price Advantage
+33.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.90 / 2.49 -0.25 1.90 / 2.49 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.94 / 2.49 -0.25 1.94 / 2.49 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.52 / 1.83 +0.25 1.52 / 1.83 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.21
xG 1.77 / 1.54 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.90
Farul Constanta @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.04
Farul Constanta @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.90 vs 2.04
Market price is 6.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.20 9.30
-1.50 4.65 6.75
-1.25 4.20 6.24
-1.00 3.68 5.65
-0.75 2.66 3.70
-0.25 1.94 2.49
0 1.64 2.14
+0.25 1.43 1.78
+0.75 1.20 1.37
+1.00 1.08 1.20
+1.25 1.06 1.15
+1.50 1.04 1.12

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.82 3.85
-0.50 2.35 3.05
-0.25 2.02 2.62
+0.25 1.52 1.83
+0.50 1.40 1.62
+0.75 1.28 1.45

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.20 9.30
-1.50 4.65 6.75
-1.25 4.20 6.25
-1.00 3.68 5.65
-0.75 2.66 3.70
-0.25 1.90 2.49
0 1.64 2.14
+0.25 1.43 1.74
+0.75 1.20 1.37
+1.00 1.08 1.20
+1.25 1.06 1.16
+1.50 1.04 1.12
Primary Bets
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