Arges Pitesti vs Farul Constanta Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Arges Pitesti
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 1-1)
Farul Constanta
Kick-off 18:30 Stadium Stadionul Orasenesc

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Arges Pitesti opened at 0 against Farul Constanta in the Liga I. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Arges Pitesti from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 8 valid books, with 62% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.15
Arges Pitesti -0.15

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.82 / 1.66
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Arges Pitesti -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 9 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.10
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.10 AH points more toward Farul Constanta than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Farul Constanta +0.25
@ 2.76
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.10
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.90
Price Advantage
+45.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 8 valid books · 62% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:15
Opening
0
18:17
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:29
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.57 / 2.25 0 1.65 / 2.10 0 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.56 / 2.31 -0.25 1.91 / 2.61 -0.25 -0.25
Betfair DEEP +1.50 1.07 / 1.17 +1.50 1.07 / 1.17 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.57 / 2.39 -0.25 2.05 / 2.76 -0.25 -0.25
Bet365 0 1.58 / 2.35 -0.25 2.02 / 2.60 -0.25 -0.25
1xBet 0 1.56 / 2.31 -0.25 1.95 / 2.61 -0.25 -0.25
Betano -0.25 1.93 / 2.82 -0.25 2.05 / 2.60 +0.25 0
Superbet +0.50 1.34 / 1.64 -0.50 2.22 / 3.20 -0.50 -1.00
BetVictor 0 1.54 / 2.27 -0.25 1.93 / 2.59 -0.25 -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.65 2.10

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.84 9.00
-1.50 4.50 6.80
-1.25 4.10 6.39
-1.00 3.58 5.90
-0.75 2.64 3.90
-0.25 1.95 2.61
0 1.60 2.23
+0.25 1.40 1.78
+0.75 1.18 1.38
+1.00 1.07 1.21
+1.25 1.05 1.16
+1.50 1.04 1.13

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.65 6.80
-1.25 4.15 6.25
-1.00 3.70 5.75
-0.75 2.75 3.70
-0.50 2.30 3.00
-0.25 2.02 2.60
0 1.65 2.20
+0.25 1.48 1.78
+0.50 1.38 1.60
+0.75 1.26 1.42
+1.00 1.14 1.26
+1.25 1.12 1.22
+1.50 1.10 1.18

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.93 2.59
0 1.60 2.15
+0.25 1.42 1.75

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.90 3.85
-0.50 2.37 3.00
-0.25 2.05 2.60
+0.25 1.52 1.82
+0.50 1.42 1.62
+0.75 1.28 1.44

Betfair Main —

AH Home Away
-2.50 10.00 13.00
-1.50 4.50 7.00
+1.50 1.07 1.17

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.85 9.00
-1.50 4.50 6.80
-1.25 4.10 6.40
-1.00 3.58 5.90
-0.75 2.64 3.92
-0.25 1.91 2.61
0 1.60 2.23
+0.25 1.40 1.75
+0.75 1.18 1.38
+1.00 1.07 1.21
+1.25 1.05 1.16
+1.50 1.04 1.13

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.95 4.14
-0.50 2.42 3.23
-0.25 2.05 2.76
0 1.67 2.26
+0.25 1.47 1.81
+0.50 1.35 1.59
+0.75 1.24 1.42

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.45 7.00
-0.50 2.22 3.20
+0.50 1.34 1.64
+1.50 1.09 1.20
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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