Zbrojovka Brno U19 vs Hradec Králové U19 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Zbrojovka Brno U19
Final Score
3 – 2
(HT 0-1)
Hradec Králové U19
Kick-off 09:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Zbrojovka Brno U19 opened at -0.25 against Hradec Králové U19 in the 1. Liga U19. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
Zbrojovka Brno U19 +0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.22 / 1.38
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Zbrojovka Brno U19 -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.39
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.39 AH points more toward Hradec Králové U19 than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Hradec Králové U19 +0.25
@ 1.76
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.39
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.62
Price Advantage
+8.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.50
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
08:15
Opening
-0.25
08:48
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
08:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.46 / 1.75 -0.25 2.43 / 1.74 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.63 / 1.60 -0.50 2.61 / 1.90 -0.50 -0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.49 / 1.75 -0.25 2.46 / 1.74 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.50 4.40
-2.00 8.40 4.95
-1.50 4.85 3.08
-1.00 4.20 2.56
-0.75 3.20 2.17
-0.25 2.46 1.74
0 2.21 1.56
+0.25 1.89 1.46
+0.75 1.55 1.26
+1.00 1.40 1.15
+1.50 1.28 1.11
+2.50 1.15 1.04

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.40 4.95
-1.50 4.85 3.08
-1.00 4.20 2.56
-0.75 3.20 2.17
-0.25 2.43 1.74
0 2.21 1.56
+0.25 1.89 1.44
+0.75 1.55 1.26
+1.00 1.40 1.15
+1.50 1.28 1.11

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.61 1.90
-0.25 2.38 1.76
0 2.15 1.55
+0.25 1.92 1.44
+0.50 1.71 1.37
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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