Newington Youth vs Ards Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Newington Youth
Final Score
0 – 2
Ards
Kick-off 18:45

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Newington Youth opened at -0.25 against Ards in the Championship. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.34 / 1.26
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Newington Youth -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Ards than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Ards +0.25
@ 2.88
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.80
Price Advantage
+60.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
09:09
Opening
-0.25
18:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.60 / 2.88 -0.25 1.59 / 2.88 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.72 / 2.55 -0.50 1.86 / 2.69 — -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.72 / 2.85 -0.25 1.72 / 2.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.60 / 2.88 -0.25 1.59 / 2.88 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.05 6.85
-1.25 2.77 4.90
-1.00 2.44 5.95
-0.75 2.00 3.42
-0.25 1.59 2.88
0 1.40 2.56
+0.25 1.32 2.10
+0.75 1.23 1.65
+1.00 1.07 1.46
+1.25 1.11 1.36
+1.50 1.04 1.28

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.30 6.60
-1.25 3.00 6.00
-1.00 2.68 5.75
-0.75 2.20 4.00
-0.50 1.98 3.30
-0.25 1.72 2.85
0 1.50 2.50
+0.25 1.40 2.08
+0.50 1.32 1.82
+0.75 1.23 1.65
+1.00 1.14 1.45
+1.25 1.12 1.38
+1.50 1.11 1.32

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.05 6.85
-1.00 2.44 5.95
-0.25 1.59 2.88
0 1.40 2.56
+0.25 1.32 2.10
+1.00 1.07 1.46
+1.50 1.04 1.28

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.86 2.69
-0.25 1.67 2.71
0 1.48 2.44
+0.25 1.39 2.09
+0.50 1.38 1.88
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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