Loughgall vs Newry City AFC Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Loughgall
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
1.48 1.12
Newry City AFC
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Loughgall opened at -0.25 against Newry City AFC in the Championship. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.32
Loughgall -0.32

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Loughgall -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.07
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.07 AH points more toward Loughgall than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Newry City AFC +0.25
@ 2.42
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.07
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.09
Price Advantage
+15.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.89 / 2.35 -0.25 1.89 / 2.35 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.98 / 2.42 -0.25 1.98 / 2.42 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.91 / 2.35 -0.25 1.91 / 2.35 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.32
xG 1.48 / 1.12 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.89
Loughgall @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.92
Loughgall @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.89 vs 1.92
Market price is 1.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.15 5.55
-1.25 3.74 4.71
-1.00 3.28 4.70
-0.75 2.52 3.28
-0.25 1.91 2.35
0 1.65 2.05
+0.25 1.47 1.76
+0.75 1.25 1.41
+1.00 1.12 1.25
+1.25 1.12 1.19
+1.50 1.08 1.16

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.10 5.75
-1.25 3.70 5.25
-1.00 3.30 4.65
-0.75 2.60 3.45
-0.50 2.20 2.85
-0.25 1.98 2.42
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.52 1.82
+0.50 1.40 1.65
+0.75 1.30 1.48
+1.00 1.18 1.32
+1.25 1.16 1.26
+1.50 1.14 1.23

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.15 5.55
-1.00 3.28 4.70
-0.75 2.52 3.28
-0.25 1.89 2.35
0 1.65 2.05
+0.25 1.47 1.74
+0.75 1.25 1.41
+1.00 1.12 1.25
+1.50 1.08 1.16
Primary Bets
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