Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Leyton Orient
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
1.34 1.39
Plymouth
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Leyton Orient opened at -0.25 against Plymouth in the League One. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Leyton Orient -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward Plymouth than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Leyton Orient -0.25
@ 3.14
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.42
Price Advantage
+29.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.88 / 1.68 -0.25 2.93 / 1.66 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.09 / 1.74 -0.25 3.14 / 1.73 — 0
Bet365 +0.25 1.90 / 1.50 -0.25 3.00 / 1.72 — -0.50
1xBet -0.25 2.94 / 1.68 -0.25 3.00 / 1.66 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.80 / 1.78 -0.25 2.80 / 1.72 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.91 / 1.68 -0.25 2.95 / 1.67 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
xG 1.34 / 1.39 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.14
Leyton Orient @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.42
Leyton Orient @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.14 vs 2.42
Market price is 29.8% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.60 3.42
-1.25 7.10 3.05
-1.00 6.55 2.69
-0.75 4.30 2.16
-0.25 3.00 1.66
0 2.60 1.45
+0.25 2.02 1.35
+0.75 1.56 1.15
+1.00 1.36 1.05
+1.25 1.29 1.04
+1.50 1.23 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 3.45
-1.25 6.80 3.10
-1.00 6.25 2.75
-0.75 4.25 2.25
-0.50 3.45 2.00
-0.25 3.00 1.72
0 2.60 1.48
+0.25 2.08 1.38
+0.50 1.85 1.30
+0.75 1.62 1.21
+1.00 1.42 1.12
+1.25 1.35 1.10
+1.50 1.30 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.25 2.19
-0.50 3.35 1.90
-0.25 2.95 1.67
0 2.54 1.44
+0.25 2.04 1.33
+0.50 1.78 1.27
+0.75 1.58 1.17

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.80 1.72
+0.25 2.07 1.42

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.60 3.42
-1.25 7.10 3.05
-1.00 6.55 2.69
-0.75 4.30 2.16
-0.25 2.93 1.66
0 2.60 1.45
+0.25 2.02 1.32
+0.75 1.56 1.15
+1.00 1.36 1.05
+1.25 1.28 1.04
+1.50 1.23 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.58 1.99
-0.25 3.14 1.73
0 2.70 1.47
+0.25 2.13 1.36
+0.50 1.85 1.29
Primary Bets
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