Blackpool vs Plymouth Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Blackpool
Final Score
2 – 4
(HT 1-1)
Plymouth
Kick-off 14:00 Stadium Bloomfield Road

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Blackpool opened at 0 against Plymouth in the League One. The current market consensus is +0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Plymouth from the opening line. The current consensus is +0.25 across 2 of 6 valid books, with 33% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also +0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.33
Blackpool -0.33

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.91 / 1.55
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Blackpool +0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 6 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.58
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.58 AH points more toward Blackpool than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
+0.25
2 / 6 valid books · 33% agreement · Weak

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:30
Opening
0
10:13
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.96 / 1.77 -0.25 2.39 / 1.87 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.02 / 1.82 +0.25 1.89 / 1.53 — +0.25
Bet365 0 1.98 / 1.88 0 2.05 / 1.80 — 0
1xBet 0 1.96 / 1.77 0 2.03 / 1.72 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.27 / 2.07 -0.25 2.25 / 2.10 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.92 / 1.76 -0.25 2.37 / 1.94 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.90 8.10
-2.00 8.80 7.40
-1.75 6.55 5.14
-1.50 5.10 4.10
-1.25 4.70 3.72
-1.00 4.30 3.28
-0.75 3.10 2.56
-0.25 2.32 1.93
0 2.03 1.72
+0.25 1.73 1.55
+0.75 1.40 1.28
+1.00 1.25 1.15
+1.25 1.20 1.12
+1.50 1.16 1.10
+1.75 1.10 1.05
+2.00 1.03 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.80 6.00
-1.50 5.25 4.65
-1.25 4.65 4.25
-1.00 4.25 3.90
-0.75 3.30 3.00
-0.50 2.60 2.42
-0.25 2.30 2.00
0 2.05 1.80
+0.25 1.85 1.60
+0.50 1.52 1.48
+0.75 1.38 1.32
+1.00 1.24 1.21
+1.25 1.21 1.18
+1.50 1.18 1.16
+1.75 1.12 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 5.00 3.90
-1.00 4.70 3.50
-0.75 3.35 2.62
-0.50 2.70 2.21
-0.25 2.37 1.94
0 2.04 1.67
+0.25 1.74 1.49
+0.50 1.57 1.39
+0.75 1.41 1.26
+1.00 1.24 1.14
+1.25 1.20 1.12

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.52 2.37
-0.25 2.25 2.10
+0.25 1.72 1.62
+0.50 1.57 1.50

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.10 6.95
-1.75 6.95 4.90
-1.50 5.35 3.86
-1.25 5.00 3.50
-1.00 4.60 3.14
-0.75 3.28 2.44
-0.25 2.39 1.87
0 2.14 1.65
+0.25 1.78 1.47
+0.75 1.44 1.25
+1.00 1.27 1.13
+1.25 1.22 1.10
+1.50 1.18 1.09
+1.75 1.11 1.04

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.49 3.42
-0.75 3.67 2.67
-0.50 2.94 2.27
-0.25 2.60 2.00
0 2.24 1.70
+0.25 1.89 1.53
+0.50 1.68 1.43
+0.75 1.51 1.30
+1.00 1.34 1.22
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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