Newport County vs York Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Newport County
Oct 17, 2026 - 14:00
1.47 1.53
York
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Newport County opened at -0.25 against York in the League Two. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Newport County -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward York than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Newport County -0.25
@ 3.18
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.40
Price Advantage
+32.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.95 / 1.62 -0.25 2.95 / 1.62 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.18 / 1.67 -0.25 3.18 / 1.67 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.10 / 1.68 -0.25 3.10 / 1.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.02 / 1.62 -0.25 3.02 / 1.62 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 3.10 / 1.61 -0.25 3.10 / 1.61 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
xG 1.47 / 1.53 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.18
Newport County @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.40
Newport County @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.18 vs 2.40
Market price is 32.5% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 4.10
-1.50 7.50 3.28
-1.25 7.09 2.92
-1.00 6.55 2.56
-0.75 4.33 2.08
-0.25 3.02 1.62
0 2.68 1.42
+0.25 2.07 1.34
+0.75 1.60 1.14
+1.00 1.40 1.05
+1.25 1.31 1.04
+1.50 1.25 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 7.00 3.00
-1.00 6.80 2.60
-0.75 4.40 2.15
-0.50 3.55 1.92
-0.25 3.10 1.68
0 2.68 1.45
+0.25 2.15 1.35
+0.50 1.92 1.27
+0.75 1.68 1.20
+1.00 1.48 1.10
+1.25 1.38 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 3.10 1.61
0 2.70 1.39
+0.25 2.13 1.30

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.00 4.10
-1.50 7.50 3.28
-1.25 7.10 2.92
-1.00 6.55 2.56
-0.75 4.33 2.08
-0.25 2.95 1.62
0 2.68 1.42
+0.25 2.07 1.31
+0.75 1.60 1.14
+1.00 1.40 1.05
+1.25 1.31 1.04
+1.50 1.25 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.58 1.90
-0.25 3.18 1.67
0 2.76 1.44
+0.25 2.19 1.34
+0.50 1.90 1.28
Primary Bets
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