Shrewsbury vs Exeter City Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Shrewsbury
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
1.58 1.72
Exeter City
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Shrewsbury opened at -0.25 against Exeter City in the League Two. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.13
Shrewsbury +0.13

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Shrewsbury -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.38
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.38 AH points more toward Exeter City than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Exeter City +0.25
@ 3.09
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.38
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+85.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.88 / 2.46 -0.25 1.78 / 2.69 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.97 / 2.62 -0.25 1.81 / 3.09 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.00 / 2.68 -0.25 1.98 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.92 / 2.46 -0.25 1.82 / 2.69 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.95 / 2.57 -0.25 1.95 / 2.55 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.90 / 2.58 -0.25 1.82 / 2.73 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.13
xG 1.58 / 1.72 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.81
Shrewsbury @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.49
Shrewsbury @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.81 vs 2.49
Market price is 27.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.24 9.00
-1.50 4.05 6.95
-1.25 3.58 6.45
-1.00 3.20 6.00
-0.75 2.41 3.92
-0.25 1.82 2.69
0 1.53 2.35
+0.25 1.37 1.89
+0.75 1.18 1.45
+1.00 1.06 1.26
+1.25 1.05 1.21
+1.50 1.04 1.16

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.50 7.00
-1.25 4.00 6.80
-1.00 3.55 6.25
-0.75 2.68 4.10
-0.50 2.25 3.30
-0.25 1.98 2.75
0 1.60 2.30
+0.25 1.42 1.88
+0.50 1.32 1.62
+0.75 1.23 1.45
+1.00 1.12 1.27
+1.25 1.10 1.23
+1.50 1.10 1.19

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.12 3.15
-0.25 1.82 2.73
0 1.53 2.29
+0.25 1.38 1.85
+0.50 1.29 1.62

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.95 2.55
+0.25 1.50 1.83

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.25 9.00
-1.50 4.05 6.95
-1.25 3.58 6.45
-1.00 3.20 6.00
-0.75 2.41 3.92
-0.25 1.78 2.69
0 1.53 2.35
+0.25 1.37 1.85
+0.75 1.18 1.45
+1.00 1.06 1.26
+1.25 1.05 1.21
+1.50 1.04 1.16

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.50 4.67
-0.50 2.10 3.56
-0.25 1.81 3.09
0 1.51 2.60
+0.25 1.38 2.03
+0.50 1.30 1.75
+0.75 1.20 1.54
Primary Bets
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