Newport County vs Colchester Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Newport County
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
1.53 1.77
Colchester
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Newport County opened at 0 against Colchester in the League Two. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.22
Newport County +0.22

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Newport County 0
Model–Market Gap
0.22
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.22 AH points more toward Colchester than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Colchester 0
@ 1.89
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.22
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+6.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.85 / 1.86 0 1.85 / 1.86 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.96 / 1.85 0 1.91 / 1.89 — 0
Bet365 0 2.05 / 1.80 0 1.98 / 1.88 — 0
1xBet 0 1.85 / 1.86 0 1.85 / 1.86 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.70 / 1.62 +0.25 1.70 / 1.62 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.89 / 1.78 0 1.87 / 1.80 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.22
xG 1.53 / 1.77 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.91
Newport County @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
Newport County @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.91 vs 2.30
Market price is 17.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.70 9.50
-2.00 9.50 8.40
-1.75 6.45 6.89
-1.50 4.95 4.90
-1.25 4.50 4.50
-1.00 4.05 4.00
-0.75 2.92 2.92
-0.25 2.16 2.10
0 1.85 1.86
+0.25 1.60 1.62
+0.75 1.31 1.31
+1.00 1.17 1.16
+1.25 1.13 1.13
+1.50 1.11 1.11
+1.75 1.06 1.05

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 6.60
-1.50 5.50 5.00
-1.25 4.80 4.50
-1.00 4.25 4.10
-0.75 3.10 3.00
-0.50 2.60 2.50
-0.25 2.25 2.20
0 1.98 1.88
+0.25 1.65 1.62
+0.50 1.50 1.48
+0.75 1.38 1.35
+1.00 1.23 1.21
+1.25 1.19 1.18
+1.50 1.17 1.15
+1.75 1.11 1.10

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.10 2.98
-0.50 2.53 2.44
-0.25 2.21 2.12
0 1.87 1.80
+0.25 1.62 1.57
+0.50 1.47 1.44
+0.75 1.33 1.30

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.55 2.42
-0.25 2.25 2.12
+0.25 1.70 1.62
+0.50 1.55 1.50

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.45 6.40
-1.50 4.95 4.90
-1.25 4.50 4.50
-1.00 4.05 4.00
-0.75 2.92 2.92
-0.25 2.12 2.10
0 1.85 1.86
+0.25 1.60 1.59
+0.75 1.31 1.31
+1.00 1.17 1.16
+1.25 1.13 1.13
+1.50 1.11 1.11
+1.75 1.05 1.05

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.30 4.26
-0.75 3.14 3.11
-0.50 2.57 2.55
-0.25 2.24 2.22
0 1.91 1.89
+0.25 1.65 1.64
+0.50 1.50 1.50
+0.75 1.36 1.35
+1.00 1.22 1.21
Primary Bets
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