Gillingham vs Newport County Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Gillingham
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
1.59 1.71
Newport County
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Gillingham opened at -0.25 against Newport County in the League Two. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Gillingham -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.36
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.36 AH points more toward Newport County than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Newport County +0.25
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.36
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.69
Price Advantage
+83.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.85 / 2.44 -0.25 1.71 / 2.73 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.96 / 2.57 -0.25 1.81 / 2.89 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.70 / 3.10 -0.25 1.70 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.89 / 2.44 -0.25 1.74 / 2.73 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.82 / 2.75 -0.25 1.75 / 2.75 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.70 / 2.96 -0.25 1.69 / 2.98 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.11
xG 1.59 / 1.71 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.81
Gillingham @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.46
Gillingham @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.81 vs 2.46
Market price is 26.4% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.75 9.00
-1.50 3.72 6.90
-1.25 3.28 6.49
-1.00 2.92 6.00
-0.75 2.26 3.98
-0.25 1.74 2.73
0 1.50 2.43
+0.25 1.36 1.98
+0.75 1.17 1.51
+1.00 1.06 1.31
+1.25 1.05 1.25
+1.50 1.04 1.20

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 2.75 7.00
-0.75 2.25 4.50
-0.50 2.00 3.55
-0.25 1.70 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 2.10
+0.50 1.27 1.85
+0.75 1.19 1.62
+1.00 1.10 1.42

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.69 2.98
0 1.44 2.54
+0.25 1.32 2.01

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.75 2.75
+0.25 1.44 2.05

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.75 9.00
-1.50 3.72 6.90
-1.25 3.28 6.50
-1.00 2.92 6.00
-0.75 2.26 3.98
-0.25 1.71 2.73
0 1.50 2.43
+0.25 1.36 1.94
+0.75 1.17 1.51
+1.00 1.06 1.31
+1.25 1.05 1.25
+1.50 1.04 1.20

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.42 4.23
-0.50 2.06 3.30
-0.25 1.81 2.89
0 1.53 2.48
+0.25 1.41 2.01
+0.50 1.32 1.75
+0.75 1.22 1.55
Primary Bets
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