Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Gillingham
Final Score
3 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Bristol Rovers
Kick-off 14:00 Stadium Priestfield Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Gillingham opened at -0.25 against Bristol Rovers in the League Two. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.35
Gillingham +0.35

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.46 / 1.84
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Gillingham -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.60
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.60 AH points more toward Bristol Rovers than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Bristol Rovers +0.25
@ 1.85
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.60
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.53
Price Advantage
+20.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:30
Opening
-0.25
10:12
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.06 / 1.61 -0.25 2.86 / 1.69 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.12 / 1.71 -0.25 2.94 / 1.85 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.10 / 1.68 -0.25 3.10 / 1.80 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.12 / 1.61 -0.25 2.79 / 1.74 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 3.20 / 1.62 -0.50 3.20 / 2.02 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.30 3.84
-1.25 6.75 3.42
-1.00 6.25 2.97
-0.75 4.05 2.33
-0.25 2.79 1.74
0 2.41 1.51
+0.25 1.90 1.39
+0.75 1.48 1.16
+1.00 1.30 1.06
+1.25 1.23 1.04
+1.50 1.18 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 6.80 2.85
-0.75 4.40 2.35
-0.50 3.45 2.05
-0.25 3.10 1.80
0 2.60 1.48
+0.25 2.05 1.35
+0.50 1.80 1.30
+0.75 1.58 1.20
+1.00 1.40 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.20 2.02
-0.25 2.77 1.76
0 2.36 1.50
+0.25 1.92 1.37
+0.50 1.68 1.29

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.70 3.70
-1.25 7.20 3.28
-1.00 6.60 2.88
-0.75 4.25 2.24
-0.25 2.86 1.69
0 2.51 1.47
+0.25 1.96 1.33
+0.75 1.52 1.15
+1.00 1.32 1.05
+1.25 1.25 1.03
+1.50 1.20 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.36 2.53
-0.50 3.36 2.12
-0.25 2.94 1.85
0 2.50 1.56
+0.25 2.01 1.42
+0.50 1.75 1.33
+0.75 1.54 1.22
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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