Exeter City vs Tranmere Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Exeter City
Final Score
0 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Tranmere
Kick-off 14:00 Stadium St James Park

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Exeter City opened at -0.25 against Tranmere in the League Two. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.26
Exeter City -0.26

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.79 / 1.51
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Exeter City -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.01
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.01 AH points more toward Exeter City than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Tranmere +0.25
@ 2.71
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.01
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.01
Price Advantage
+34.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:30
Opening
-0.25
10:12
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.88 / 2.49 -0.25 1.84 / 2.55 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.97 / 2.60 -0.25 1.95 / 2.71 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.95 / 2.60 -0.25 1.95 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.92 / 2.49 -0.25 1.88 / 2.55 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.95 / 2.55 -0.25 1.95 / 2.55 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.89 / 2.56 -0.25 1.87 / 2.59 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.74 9.30
-1.50 4.33 6.75
-1.25 3.88 6.24
-1.00 3.42 5.70
-0.75 2.52 3.74
-0.25 1.88 2.55
0 1.60 2.21
+0.25 1.41 1.83
+0.75 1.19 1.41
+1.00 1.08 1.23
+1.25 1.06 1.18
+1.50 1.04 1.14

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 6.80
-1.25 3.80 6.40
-1.00 3.45 5.90
-0.75 2.60 3.90
-0.50 2.20 3.10
-0.25 1.95 2.68
0 1.60 2.30
+0.25 1.45 1.90
+0.50 1.35 1.65
+0.75 1.24 1.48
+1.00 1.13 1.30
+1.25 1.12 1.25
+1.50 1.10 1.21

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.16 2.98
-0.25 1.87 2.59
0 1.58 2.19
+0.25 1.42 1.80
+0.50 1.32 1.59

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.95 2.55
+0.25 1.50 1.82

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.75 9.30
-1.50 4.33 6.75
-1.25 3.88 6.25
-1.00 3.42 5.70
-0.75 2.52 3.74
-0.25 1.84 2.55
0 1.60 2.21
+0.25 1.41 1.79
+0.75 1.19 1.41
+1.00 1.08 1.23
+1.25 1.06 1.18
+1.50 1.04 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.67 4.00
-0.50 2.25 3.11
-0.25 1.95 2.71
0 1.65 2.30
+0.25 1.48 1.89
+0.50 1.38 1.67
+0.75 1.26 1.49
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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