Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Krylia Sovetov
Oct 14, 2026 - 13:15
1.22 1.38
Baltika
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Krylia Sovetov opened at -0.25 against Baltika in the Cup. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
Krylia Sovetov +0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Krylia Sovetov -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.39
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.39 AH points more toward Baltika than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Baltika +0.25
@ 2.04
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.39
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.62
Price Advantage
+25.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.54 / 1.99 -0.25 2.54 / 1.99 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.67 / 2.04 -0.25 2.67 / 2.04 — 0
1xBet 0 2.19 / 1.71 0 2.19 / 1.71 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
xG 1.22 / 1.38 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.67
Krylia Sovetov @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.62
Krylia Sovetov @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.67 vs 2.62
Market price is 1.9% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 12.00 8.70
-1.75 8.40 5.83
-1.50 6.30 4.55
-1.25 5.98 4.17
-1.00 5.55 3.75
-0.75 3.74 2.76
-0.25 2.62 1.99
0 2.19 1.71
+0.25 1.75 1.52
+0.75 1.38 1.23
+1.00 1.22 1.10
+1.25 1.16 1.09
+1.50 1.14 1.06
+1.75 1.07 1.02

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.10 5.85
-1.50 6.30 4.55
-1.25 5.95 4.20
-1.00 5.55 3.75
-0.75 3.74 2.77
-0.25 2.54 1.99
0 2.17 1.69
+0.25 1.75 1.47
+0.75 1.39 1.23
+1.00 1.22 1.10
+1.25 1.17 1.08
+1.50 1.14 1.06
+1.75 1.07 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.98 2.89
-0.50 3.11 2.37
-0.25 2.67 2.04
0 2.21 1.67
+0.25 1.81 1.47
+0.50 1.58 1.36
+0.75 1.42 1.24
Primary Bets
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