Middlesbrough vs Wolves Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Middlesbrough
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
1.68 1.33
Wolves
Opening
+0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
+0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 6 books · 50% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
-0.50
Toward Home · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Middlesbrough opened at +0.25 against Wolves in the Championship. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.50 points toward Middlesbrough from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 6 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.32
Middlesbrough -0.32

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Middlesbrough -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.07
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.07 AH points more toward Middlesbrough than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Wolves +0.25
@ 2.62
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.07
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.08
Price Advantage
+26.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 6 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.86 / 2.42 -0.25 1.86 / 2.42 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.52 / 1.86 +0.25 1.52 / 1.86 — 0
Bet365 +0.25 1.50 / 1.85 0 1.72 / 2.08 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.90 / 2.42 -0.25 1.90 / 2.42 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.52 / 1.91 +0.25 1.52 / 1.91 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.90 / 2.43 -0.25 1.92 / 2.41 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.32
xG 1.68 / 1.33 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.86
Middlesbrough @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.93
Middlesbrough @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.86 vs 1.93
Market price is 3.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.95 7.30
-1.50 3.90 5.60
-1.25 3.50 5.19
-1.00 3.14 4.75
-0.75 2.44 3.34
-0.25 1.90 2.42
0 1.64 2.15
+0.25 1.46 1.83
+0.75 1.24 1.44
+1.00 1.12 1.27
+1.25 1.10 1.22
+1.50 1.08 1.18
+1.75 1.03 1.11

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 5.75
-1.25 3.80 5.25
-1.00 3.45 4.50
-0.75 2.68 3.45
-0.50 2.30 2.75
-0.25 2.05 2.42
0 1.72 2.08
+0.25 1.52 1.80
+0.50 1.42 1.60
+0.75 1.30 1.45
+1.00 1.19 1.30
+1.25 1.16 1.25
+1.50 1.14 1.21

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.40 4.90
-0.75 2.59 3.35
-0.50 2.18 2.73
-0.25 1.92 2.41
0 1.65 2.07
+0.25 1.48 1.76
+0.50 1.38 1.58
+0.75 1.26 1.42
+1.00 1.13 1.26

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.18 2.95
-0.25 1.93 2.62
+0.25 1.52 1.91
+0.50 1.42 1.72

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.95 7.30
-1.50 3.90 5.60
-1.25 3.50 5.20
-1.00 3.14 4.75
-0.75 2.44 3.35
-0.25 1.86 2.42
0 1.64 2.15
+0.25 1.46 1.79
+0.75 1.24 1.44
+1.00 1.12 1.27
+1.25 1.10 1.22
+1.50 1.08 1.18
+1.75 1.03 1.11

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.70 3.67
-0.50 2.28 2.95
-0.25 2.00 2.59
0 1.69 2.21
+0.25 1.52 1.86
+0.50 1.41 1.65
+0.75 1.29 1.48
Primary Bets
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