Charlton vs Bristol City Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Charlton
Oct 10, 2026 - 11:30
1.02 1.03
Bristol City
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Charlton opened at -0.25 against Bristol City in the Championship. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.01
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Charlton -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.26
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.26 AH points more toward Bristol City than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Bristol City +0.25
@ 1.98
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.26
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.69
Price Advantage
+17.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.57 / 1.86 -0.25 2.57 / 1.86 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.69 / 2.02 -0.25 2.78 / 1.96 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.68 / 1.98 -0.25 2.68 / 1.98 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.63 / 1.86 -0.25 2.63 / 1.86 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.75 / 1.95 -0.25 2.75 / 1.95 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.59 / 1.88 -0.25 2.60 / 1.88 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.01
xG 1.02 / 1.03 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.78
Charlton @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.45
Charlton @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.78 vs 2.45
Market price is 13.5% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 4.40
-1.25 6.40 3.94
-1.00 5.90 3.48
-0.75 3.82 2.56
-0.25 2.63 1.86
0 2.23 1.60
+0.25 1.79 1.44
+0.75 1.40 1.19
+1.00 1.22 1.07
+1.25 1.17 1.05
+1.50 1.14 1.04

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 4.40
-1.25 6.40 4.00
-1.00 5.90 3.55
-0.75 3.90 2.68
-0.50 3.10 2.25
-0.25 2.68 1.98
0 2.25 1.62
+0.25 1.88 1.45
+0.50 1.62 1.35
+0.75 1.45 1.24
+1.00 1.27 1.13
+1.25 1.23 1.12
+1.50 1.20 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.90 2.62
-0.50 3.00 2.17
-0.25 2.60 1.88
0 2.19 1.58
+0.25 1.80 1.42
+0.50 1.59 1.32
+0.75 1.41 1.20

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.15 2.25
-0.25 2.75 1.95
+0.25 1.90 1.47
+0.50 1.67 1.38

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 4.40
-1.25 6.40 3.95
-1.00 5.90 3.48
-0.75 3.82 2.56
-0.25 2.57 1.86
0 2.23 1.60
+0.25 1.79 1.41
+0.75 1.40 1.19
+1.00 1.22 1.07
+1.25 1.17 1.05
+1.50 1.14 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.12 2.74
-0.50 3.21 2.28
-0.25 2.78 1.96
0 2.33 1.63
+0.25 1.89 1.46
+0.50 1.65 1.35
+0.75 1.47 1.24
Primary Bets
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