Písek vs Viktoria Plzeň II Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Písek
Final Score
2 – 2
(HT 2-1)
Viktoria Plzeň II
Kick-off 16:00 Stadium Sports facility Pisek

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Písek opened at 0 against Viktoria Plzeň II in the 3. liga - CFL A. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Písek from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.29 / 1.31
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Písek -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.27
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.27 AH points more toward Viktoria Plzeň II than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Viktoria Plzeň II +0.25
@ 2.43
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.27
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.72
Price Advantage
+41.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
0
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.78 / 1.88 -0.25 1.91 / 2.33 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.86 / 1.89 -0.25 1.93 / 2.43 — -0.25
Bet365 0 1.80 / 2.00 0 1.80 / 2.00 — 0
1xBet 0 1.78 / 1.88 -0.25 1.93 / 2.33 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.34 7.20
-1.50 4.15 5.40
-1.25 3.76 5.00
-1.00 3.34 4.55
-0.75 2.56 3.20
-0.25 1.93 2.33
0 1.67 2.03
+0.25 1.48 1.74
+0.75 1.26 1.40
+1.00 1.13 1.24
+1.25 1.10 1.19
+1.50 1.09 1.16
+1.75 1.03 1.09

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.80 2.00

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.80 8.90
-2.00 7.90 8.30
-1.75 5.35 7.20
-1.50 4.15 5.40
-1.25 3.76 5.00
-1.00 3.34 4.55
-0.75 2.56 3.20
-0.25 1.91 2.33
0 1.67 2.03
+0.25 1.48 1.72
+0.75 1.26 1.40
+1.00 1.13 1.24
+1.25 1.10 1.19
+1.50 1.09 1.16
+1.75 1.03 1.09
+2.00 1.02 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.49 2.91
-0.50 2.17 2.73
-0.25 1.93 2.43
0 1.66 2.13
+0.25 1.49 1.83
+0.50 1.39 1.63
+0.75 1.35 1.47
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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