Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Dungannon Swifts
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
1.27 1.33
Carrick Rangers
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
-0.25
Toward Home · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Dungannon Swifts opened at 0 against Carrick Rangers in the Premiership. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Dungannon Swifts from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Dungannon Swifts -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward Carrick Rangers than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Carrick Rangers +0.25
@ 2.45
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.69
Price Advantage
+45.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.91 / 2.30 -0.25 1.91 / 2.30 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.72 / 2.10 0 1.72 / 2.10 — 0
Bet365 0 1.78 / 2.02 -0.25 2.00 / 2.42 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.93 / 2.30 -0.25 1.93 / 2.30 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
xG 1.27 / 1.33 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.91
Dungannon Swifts @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.45
Dungannon Swifts @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.91 vs 2.45
Market price is 22.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 7.70 9.60
-1.75 5.29 7.33
-1.50 4.10 5.30
-1.25 3.74 4.89
-1.00 3.34 4.50
-0.75 2.56 3.20
-0.25 1.93 2.30
0 1.67 2.03
+0.25 1.49 1.74
+0.75 1.26 1.40
+1.00 1.13 1.24
+1.25 1.11 1.19
+1.50 1.09 1.16
+1.75 1.04 1.09

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.25 6.80
-1.50 4.00 5.50
-1.25 3.55 5.00
-1.00 3.30 4.50
-0.75 2.60 3.45
-0.50 2.20 2.75
-0.25 2.00 2.42
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.52 1.80
+0.50 1.42 1.65
+0.75 1.30 1.48
+1.00 1.19 1.32
+1.25 1.17 1.27
+1.50 1.15 1.23
+1.75 1.10 1.16

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.30 6.95
-1.50 4.10 5.30
-1.25 3.74 4.90
-1.00 3.34 4.50
-0.75 2.56 3.20
-0.25 1.91 2.30
0 1.67 2.03
+0.25 1.49 1.72
+0.75 1.26 1.40
+1.00 1.13 1.24
+1.25 1.11 1.19
+1.50 1.09 1.16
+1.75 1.04 1.09

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.75 3.44
-0.50 2.31 2.79
-0.25 2.03 2.45
0 1.72 2.10
+0.25 1.53 1.79
+0.50 1.42 1.60
+0.75 1.30 1.44
Primary Bets
More