Cliftonville FC vs Ballymena United Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Cliftonville FC
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
1.34 1.26
Ballymena United
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Cliftonville FC opened at -0.25 against Ballymena United in the Premiership. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Cliftonville FC -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Ballymena United than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Ballymena United +0.25
@ 2.75
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.80
Price Advantage
+52.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.75 / 2.56 -0.25 1.78 / 2.52 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.83 / 2.73 -0.25 1.87 / 2.66 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.80 / 2.75 -0.25 1.80 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.76 / 2.56 -0.25 1.80 / 2.52 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
xG 1.34 / 1.26 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.87
Cliftonville FC @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.24
Cliftonville FC @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.87 vs 2.24
Market price is 16.5% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.80 7.90
-1.50 3.75 6.05
-1.25 3.34 5.60
-1.00 2.97 5.15
-0.75 2.33 3.50
-0.25 1.80 2.52
0 1.56 2.21
+0.25 1.41 1.86
+0.75 1.22 1.48
+1.00 1.10 1.30
+1.25 1.08 1.24
+1.50 1.06 1.19
+1.75 1.02 1.12

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.55 6.60
-1.25 3.30 6.00
-1.00 2.85 5.75
-0.75 2.35 3.90
-0.50 2.05 3.10
-0.25 1.80 2.75
0 1.55 2.38
+0.25 1.42 2.00
+0.50 1.35 1.75
+0.75 1.24 1.58
+1.00 1.14 1.40
+1.25 1.12 1.32
+1.50 1.11 1.27

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.80 7.90
-1.50 3.75 6.05
-1.25 3.34 5.60
-1.00 2.97 5.15
-0.75 2.33 3.50
-0.25 1.78 2.52
0 1.56 2.21
+0.25 1.41 1.84
+0.75 1.22 1.48
+1.00 1.10 1.30
+1.25 1.08 1.24
+1.50 1.06 1.19
+1.75 1.02 1.12

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.49 3.77
-0.50 2.12 3.00
-0.25 1.87 2.66
0 1.61 2.30
+0.25 1.46 1.93
+0.50 1.37 1.70
+0.75 1.26 1.52
Primary Bets
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