Lechia Zielona Góra vs Legia Warszawa II Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Lechia Zielona Góra
Oct 10, 2026 - 16:00
1.26 1.34
Legia Warszawa II
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Lechia Zielona Góra opened at -0.25 against Legia Warszawa II in the II Liga - East. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Lechia Zielona Góra -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.32
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.32 AH points more toward Legia Warszawa II than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Legia Warszawa II +0.25
@ 2.68
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.32
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+60.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.81 / 2.46 -0.25 1.81 / 2.46 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.82 / 2.68 -0.25 1.82 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet 0 1.69 / 2.04 -0.25 1.83 / 2.46 — -0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
xG 1.26 / 1.34 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.81
Lechia Zielona Góra @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.48
Lechia Zielona Góra @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.81 vs 2.48
Market price is 27.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.94 7.80
-1.50 3.85 5.90
-1.25 3.42 5.40
-1.00 3.08 4.95
-0.75 2.41 3.42
-0.25 1.83 2.46
0 1.59 2.15
+0.25 1.43 1.83
+0.75 1.23 1.45
+1.00 1.11 1.28
+1.25 1.09 1.23
+1.50 1.07 1.18
+1.75 1.02 1.11

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.55 6.00
-1.25 3.30 5.75
-1.00 2.85 5.25
-0.75 2.38 3.70
-0.50 2.08 3.00
-0.25 1.82 2.68
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.45 1.98
+0.50 1.38 1.72
+0.75 1.26 1.55
+1.00 1.16 1.40
+1.25 1.14 1.32
+1.50 1.12 1.27

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.95 7.80
-1.50 3.85 5.90
-1.25 3.42 5.40
-1.00 3.08 4.95
-0.75 2.41 3.42
-0.25 1.81 2.46
0 1.59 2.15
+0.25 1.43 1.81
+0.75 1.23 1.45
+1.00 1.11 1.28
+1.25 1.09 1.23
+1.50 1.07 1.18
+1.75 1.02 1.11
Primary Bets
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