Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Kick-off 13:30 Stadium Stadion BTS Rekord

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Rekord Bielsko-Biała opened at 0 against Sandecja Nowy Sącz in the II Liga - East. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Rekord Bielsko-Biała from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.25 / 1.35
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Rekord Bielsko-Biała -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward Sandecja Nowy Sącz than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Sandecja Nowy Sącz +0.25
@ 1.90
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+14.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:30
Opening
0
13:23
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.90 / 1.76 -0.25 2.52 / 1.82 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.60 / 1.90 -0.25 2.60 / 1.89 — 0
Bet365 0 1.95 / 1.85 -0.25 2.68 / 1.90 — -0.25
1xBet 0 1.90 / 1.76 -0.25 2.54 / 1.82 — -0.25
BetVictor -0.25 2.20 / 1.68 -0.25 2.23 / 1.65 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.60 8.70
-1.75 8.45 5.20
-1.50 6.30 4.00
-1.25 5.80 3.58
-1.00 5.30 3.20
-0.75 3.58 2.46
-0.25 2.54 1.82
0 2.18 1.57
+0.25 1.80 1.42
+0.75 1.43 1.21
+1.00 1.26 1.09
+1.25 1.21 1.07
+1.50 1.17 1.06

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.80 4.80
-1.50 6.25 3.70
-1.25 5.75 3.45
-1.00 5.25 3.00
-0.75 3.70 2.38
-0.50 3.00 2.10
-0.25 2.68 1.90
0 2.30 1.60
+0.25 1.90 1.45
+0.50 1.70 1.38
+0.75 1.55 1.26
+1.00 1.38 1.16
+1.25 1.30 1.14
+1.50 1.26 1.12
+1.75 1.18 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.23 1.65
0 1.96 1.45
+0.25 1.68 1.33

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.80 7.80
-1.75 8.50 5.20
-1.50 6.30 4.00
-1.25 5.80 3.58
-1.00 5.30 3.20
-0.75 3.58 2.46
-0.25 2.52 1.82
0 2.18 1.57
+0.25 1.80 1.41
+0.75 1.43 1.21
+1.00 1.26 1.09
+1.25 1.21 1.07
+1.50 1.17 1.06

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.22 2.48
-0.50 2.95 2.15
-0.25 2.60 1.89
0 2.26 1.61
+0.25 1.89 1.45
+0.50 1.67 1.36
+0.75 1.49 1.31
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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