Podhale Nowy Targ vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Podhale Nowy Targ
Oct 03, 2026 - 11:00
1.37 1.23
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Podhale Nowy Targ opened at -0.25 against Rekord Bielsko-Biała in the II Liga - East. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Podhale Nowy Targ -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.13
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.13 AH points more toward Rekord Bielsko-Biała than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Rekord Bielsko-Biała +0.25
@ 3.13
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.13
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.86
Price Advantage
+68.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.72 / 2.66 -0.25 1.62 / 2.92 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.63 / 3.13 -0.25 1.63 / 3.13 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.78 / 2.85 -0.25 1.78 / 2.85 — 0
1xBet 0 1.58 / 2.18 -0.25 1.64 / 2.92 — -0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.12
xG 1.37 / 1.23 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.63
Podhale Nowy Targ @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.16
Podhale Nowy Targ @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.63 vs 2.16
Market price is 24.5% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.98 9.00
-1.50 3.20 6.90
-1.25 2.88 6.54
-1.00 2.56 6.10
-0.75 2.08 4.19
-0.25 1.64 2.92
0 1.42 2.56
+0.25 1.31 2.07
+0.75 1.15 1.60
+1.00 1.06 1.40
+1.25 1.05 1.32
+1.50 1.04 1.26

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.55 6.60
-1.25 3.30 6.25
-1.00 2.85 5.75
-0.75 2.35 4.00
-0.50 2.02 3.30
-0.25 1.78 2.85
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.40 2.02
+0.50 1.32 1.78
+0.75 1.23 1.58
+1.00 1.14 1.40
+1.25 1.12 1.32
+1.50 1.11 1.27

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.98 9.00
-1.50 3.20 6.90
-1.25 2.88 6.55
-1.00 2.56 6.10
-0.75 2.08 4.20
-0.25 1.62 2.92
0 1.42 2.56
+0.25 1.31 2.05
+0.75 1.16 1.60
+1.00 1.06 1.40
+1.25 1.05 1.32
+1.50 1.04 1.26

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.63 3.13
0 1.41 2.75
+0.25 1.32 2.22
Primary Bets
More