Ujpest vs Puskas Academy Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ujpest
Oct 17, 2026 - 17:30
1.48 1.54
Puskas Academy
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ujpest opened at -0.25 against Puskas Academy in the NB I. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Ujpest -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward Puskas Academy than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Puskas Academy +0.25
@ 2.57
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.71
Price Advantage
+50.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.84 / 2.38 -0.25 1.84 / 2.38 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.93 / 2.57 -0.25 1.93 / 2.57 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.86 / 2.38 -0.25 1.86 / 2.38 — 0
Betano -0.50 2.22 / 2.65 -0.50 2.22 / 2.65 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
xG 1.48 / 1.54 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.93
Ujpest @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.40
Ujpest @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.93 vs 2.40
Market price is 19.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.40 9.30
-2.00 6.75 10.00
-1.75 4.80 7.39
-1.50 3.82 5.30
-1.25 3.42 4.94
-1.00 3.08 4.55
-0.75 2.43 3.28
-0.25 1.86 2.38
0 1.62 2.10
+0.25 1.46 1.80
+0.75 1.25 1.44
+1.00 1.13 1.28
+1.25 1.11 1.23
+1.50 1.09 1.19
+1.75 1.05 1.12
+2.50 1.02 1.03

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.22 2.65
+0.50 1.47 1.65

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 6.75 9.10
-1.75 4.80 6.80
-1.50 3.82 5.30
-1.25 3.42 4.95
-1.00 3.08 4.55
-0.75 2.43 3.28
-0.25 1.84 2.38
0 1.62 2.10
+0.25 1.46 1.78
+0.75 1.25 1.44
+1.00 1.13 1.28
+1.25 1.11 1.23
+1.50 1.09 1.19
+1.75 1.04 1.12

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.28 4.05
-0.75 2.58 3.59
-0.50 2.20 2.91
-0.25 1.93 2.57
0 1.65 2.21
+0.25 1.49 1.86
+0.50 1.39 1.66
+0.75 1.28 1.49
+1.00 1.22 1.32
Primary Bets
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