Ústí nad Labem vs Opava Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ústí nad Labem
Oct 09, 2026 - 16:00
1.32 1.28
Opava
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.50
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ústí nad Labem opened at -0.25 against Opava in the FNL. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Ústí nad Labem -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Opava than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Opava +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+69.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.63 / 2.88 -0.25 1.71 / 2.74 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 1.99 / 3.13 -0.50 1.95 / 3.13 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.70 / 3.00 -0.25 1.70 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet 0 1.51 / 2.31 -0.25 1.73 / 2.74 — -0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.32 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.71
Ústí nad Labem @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
Ústí nad Labem @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.71 vs 2.30
Market price is 25.7% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.50 8.90
-1.50 3.50 6.75
-1.25 3.14 6.30
-1.00 2.83 5.85
-0.75 2.24 3.96
-0.25 1.73 2.74
0 1.48 2.39
+0.25 1.35 1.94
+0.75 1.17 1.52
+1.00 1.07 1.33
+1.25 1.06 1.27
+1.50 1.04 1.22

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.10 7.00
-1.00 2.68 6.60
-0.75 2.20 4.40
-0.50 1.95 3.45
-0.25 1.70 3.00
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.38 2.10
+0.50 1.30 1.85
+0.75 1.20 1.65
+1.00 1.11 1.45
+1.25 1.10 1.35

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.50 8.90
-1.50 3.50 6.75
-1.25 3.14 6.30
-1.00 2.83 5.85
-0.75 2.24 3.96
-0.25 1.71 2.74
0 1.48 2.39
+0.25 1.35 1.92
+0.75 1.17 1.52
+1.00 1.07 1.33
+1.25 1.06 1.27
+1.50 1.04 1.22

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.95 3.13
-0.25 1.70 2.96
0 1.46 2.57
+0.25 1.36 2.09
+0.50 1.32 1.83
Primary Bets
More