Táborsko vs Karviná Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Táborsko
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-0)
Karviná
Kick-off 16:00 Stadium Stadion Kvapilova

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Táborsko opened at -0.25 against Karviná in the FNL. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.35 / 1.25
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Táborsko -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.16
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.16 AH points more toward Karviná than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Táborsko -0.25
@ 2.68
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.16
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.22
Price Advantage
+20.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:45
Opening
-0.25
13:19
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.59 / 1.79 -0.25 2.62 / 1.79 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.73 / 1.83 -0.25 2.68 / 1.85 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.68 / 1.85 -0.25 2.68 / 1.90 — 0
1xBet 0 2.05 / 1.66 -0.25 2.65 / 1.79 — -0.25
Betano -0.25 2.62 / 1.85 -0.25 2.62 / 1.85 — 0
BetVictor 0 2.31 / 1.52 0 2.24 / 1.56 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 5.15
-1.50 6.80 3.96
-1.25 6.29 3.50
-1.00 5.75 3.08
-0.75 3.85 2.43
-0.25 2.65 1.79
0 2.27 1.53
+0.25 1.83 1.39
+0.75 1.46 1.18
+1.00 1.28 1.07
+1.25 1.22 1.06
+1.50 1.17 1.04

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.40 4.00
-1.25 5.90 3.55
-1.00 5.50 3.30
-0.75 3.70 2.50
-0.50 3.00 2.15
-0.25 2.68 1.90
0 2.30 1.60
+0.25 1.90 1.45
+0.50 1.68 1.38
+0.75 1.50 1.26
+1.00 1.32 1.15
+1.25 1.27 1.13
+1.50 1.23 1.12

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
0 2.24 1.56

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.62 1.85
+0.25 1.90 1.45

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.20 5.15
-1.50 6.80 3.96
-1.25 6.30 3.50
-1.00 5.75 3.08
-0.75 3.85 2.41
-0.25 2.62 1.79
0 2.27 1.53
+0.25 1.83 1.38
+0.75 1.45 1.18
+1.00 1.28 1.07
+1.25 1.22 1.06
+1.50 1.17 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.04 2.11
-0.25 2.68 1.85
0 2.33 1.57
+0.25 1.93 1.43
+0.50 1.69 1.34
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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