Antigua GFC vs Municipal Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Antigua GFC
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 1-1)
Municipal
Kick-off 01:00 Stadium Estadio Pensativo

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Antigua GFC opened at -0.25 against Municipal in the Liga Nacional. The current market consensus is 0. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Municipal from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.26 / 1.34
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Antigua GFC 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.07
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.07 AH points more toward Municipal than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

No positive price advantage at the valid market line.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:30
Opening
-0.25
00:58
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.88 / 2.46 0 1.89 / 1.77 — +0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.99 / 1.81 0 2.02 / 1.81 — 0
Bet365 0 1.75 / 2.05 -0.25 1.98 / 2.02 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.89 / 2.46 0 1.89 / 1.77 — +0.25
BetVictor -0.25 1.87 / 2.59 0 1.92 / 1.76 — +0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.90 9.50
-1.50 5.45 5.00
-1.25 4.79 4.60
-1.00 4.60 4.15
-0.75 3.28 3.04
-0.25 2.28 2.12
0 1.89 1.77
+0.25 1.58 1.52
+0.75 1.29 1.25
+1.00 1.16 1.13
+1.25 1.13 1.12
+1.50 1.10 1.08

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.98 2.02
0 2.02 1.78
+0.25 1.78 1.82

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.62 2.41
-0.25 2.27 2.09
0 1.92 1.76
+0.25 1.64 1.54
+0.50 1.48 1.41

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.45 5.00
-1.25 4.45 4.60
-1.00 4.60 4.15
-0.75 3.28 3.04
-0.25 2.26 2.12
0 1.89 1.77
+0.25 1.58 1.51
+0.75 1.29 1.25
+1.00 1.16 1.13
+1.25 1.13 1.14
+1.50 1.10 1.08

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.62 3.19
-0.50 2.91 2.62
-0.25 2.49 2.23
0 2.02 1.81
+0.25 1.65 1.53
+0.50 1.46 1.38
+0.75 1.33 1.27
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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