KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

KV Mechelen
Oct 11, 2026 - 17:15
1.60 1.81
St. Truiden
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

KV Mechelen opened at -0.25 against St. Truiden in the Jupiler Pro League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.19
KV Mechelen +0.19

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
KV Mechelen -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.44
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.44 AH points more toward St. Truiden than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
St. Truiden +0.25
@ 1.88
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.44
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.63
Price Advantage
+15.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.68 / 1.74 -0.25 2.64 / 1.75 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.94 / 1.86 -0.25 2.91 / 1.88 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.75 / 1.82 -0.25 2.68 / 1.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.85 / 1.74 -0.25 2.80 / 1.75 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.87 / 1.85 -0.25 2.87 / 1.85 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.66 / 1.78 -0.25 2.64 / 1.79 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.19
xG 1.60 / 1.81 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.91
KV Mechelen @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.58
KV Mechelen @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.91 vs 2.58
Market price is 12.8% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 10.00 6.70
-1.75 8.35 4.64
-1.50 6.35 3.58
-1.25 5.89 3.28
-1.00 5.45 2.88
-0.75 3.75 2.29
-0.25 2.80 1.75
0 2.41 1.58
+0.25 1.90 1.45
+0.75 1.50 1.19
+1.00 1.32 1.08
+1.25 1.25 1.07
+1.50 1.21 1.06

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.40 3.80
-1.25 5.90 3.45
-1.00 5.50 3.10
-0.75 3.80 2.42
-0.50 3.10 2.10
-0.25 2.68 1.85
0 2.35 1.58
+0.25 1.95 1.45
+0.50 1.70 1.35
+0.75 1.52 1.25
+1.00 1.35 1.15
+1.25 1.30 1.13
+1.50 1.25 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.64 1.79
0 2.27 1.54
+0.25 1.88 1.41

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.25 2.18
-0.25 2.87 1.85
+0.25 2.00 1.45
+0.50 1.72 1.37

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.40 4.65
-1.50 6.40 3.58
-1.25 5.90 3.28
-1.00 5.45 2.88
-0.75 3.75 2.29
-0.25 2.64 1.75
0 2.35 1.54
+0.25 1.90 1.39
+0.75 1.50 1.19
+1.00 1.32 1.08
+1.25 1.25 1.07
+1.50 1.21 1.05

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.26 2.55
-0.50 3.34 2.18
-0.25 2.91 1.88
0 2.45 1.57
+0.25 1.97 1.43
+0.50 1.71 1.33
+0.75 1.53 1.23
Primary Bets
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