SK Beveren vs Lommel United Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

SK Beveren
Final Score
1 – 3
(HT 1-1)
Lommel United
Kick-off 18:45 Stadium Freethielstadion

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

SK Beveren opened at -0.25 against Lommel United in the Jupiler Pro League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.45 / 1.37
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
SK Beveren -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Lommel United than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Lommel United +0.25
@ 3.14
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.81
Price Advantage
+73.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
18:01
Opening
-0.25
18:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.55 / 3.14 -0.25 1.55 / 3.14 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.62 / 3.10 -0.25 1.62 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.63 / 3.14 -0.25 1.63 / 3.14 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.04 8.10
-1.25 2.78 7.65
-1.00 2.43 7.10
-0.75 1.98 4.64
-0.25 1.63 3.14
0 1.38 3.08
+0.25 1.27 2.30
+0.75 1.12 1.69
+1.00 1.04 1.51
+1.25 1.02 1.40
+1.50 1.02 1.29

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 2.50 6.80
-0.75 2.08 4.50
-0.50 1.90 3.55
-0.25 1.62 3.10
0 1.42 2.75
+0.25 1.35 2.25
+0.50 1.27 1.90
+0.75 1.19 1.72
+1.00 1.10 1.50

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.04 8.10
-1.25 2.72 7.70
-1.00 2.43 7.10
-0.75 1.98 4.65
-0.25 1.55 3.14
0 1.35 2.74
+0.25 1.27 2.18
+0.75 1.12 1.69
+1.00 1.04 1.51
+1.25 1.03 1.37
+1.50 1.02 1.29
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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