Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Pogoń Siedlce
Oct 18, 2026 - 15:00
1.30 1.30
Stal Rzeszów
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Pogoń Siedlce opened at -0.25 against Stal Rzeszów in the I Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Pogoń Siedlce -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward Stal Rzeszów than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Stal Rzeszów +0.25
@ 2.60
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+49.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.85 / 2.43 -0.25 1.85 / 2.41 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.98 / 2.59 -0.25 1.98 / 2.59 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.95 / 2.60 -0.25 1.98 / 2.60 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.87 / 2.43 -0.25 1.87 / 2.41 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.88 / 2.53 -0.25 1.89 / 2.48 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
0
xG 1.30 / 1.30 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.98
Pogoń Siedlce @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.36
Pogoń Siedlce @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.98 vs 2.36
Market price is 16.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.09 7.30
-1.50 4.00 5.65
-1.25 3.58 5.24
-1.00 3.20 4.80
-0.75 2.49 3.34
-0.25 1.87 2.41
0 1.62 2.11
+0.25 1.45 1.79
+0.75 1.24 1.42
+1.00 1.11 1.26
+1.25 1.09 1.21
+1.50 1.08 1.17
+1.75 1.03 1.10

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.15 6.40
-1.25 3.80 5.90
-1.00 3.45 5.50
-0.75 2.60 3.70
-0.50 2.20 3.00
-0.25 1.98 2.60
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.48 1.82
+0.50 1.38 1.65
+0.75 1.26 1.48
+1.00 1.15 1.30
+1.25 1.13 1.25
+1.50 1.12 1.22

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.89 2.48
0 1.62 2.12
+0.25 1.46 1.78

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.10 7.30
-1.50 4.00 5.65
-1.25 3.58 5.25
-1.00 3.20 4.80
-0.75 2.49 3.34
-0.25 1.85 2.41
0 1.62 2.11
+0.25 1.45 1.77
+0.75 1.24 1.42
+1.00 1.11 1.26
+1.25 1.09 1.21
+1.50 1.08 1.17
+1.75 1.03 1.10

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.71 3.70
-0.50 2.28 2.97
-0.25 1.98 2.59
0 1.67 2.19
+0.25 1.49 1.83
+0.50 1.38 1.61
+0.75 1.26 1.45
Primary Bets
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