Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Stal Mielec
Oct 11, 2026 - 10:00
1.49 1.11
Warta Poznań
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
4 / 6 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
+0.25
Toward Away · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Stal Mielec opened at -0.25 against Warta Poznań in the I Liga. The current market consensus is 0. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Warta Poznań from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.34
Stal Mielec -0.34

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Stal Mielec 0
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward Stal Mielec than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Stal Mielec 0
@ 2.12
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.61
Price Advantage
+31.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.38 / 1.86 0 1.98 / 1.70 — +0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.08 / 1.74 0 2.12 / 1.75 — 0
Bet365 0 2.10 / 1.70 0 2.10 / 1.70 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.40 / 1.86 0 1.98 / 1.70 — +0.25
Betano -0.25 2.35 / 1.98 -0.50 2.65 / 2.27 — -0.25
BetVictor -0.25 2.35 / 1.95 -0.25 2.36 / 1.95 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.34
xG 1.49 / 1.11 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.12
Stal Mielec @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.61
Stal Mielec @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.12 vs 1.61
Market price is 31.7% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 10.50 9.20
-2.00 9.40 8.30
-1.75 7.09 5.54
-1.50 5.35 4.30
-1.25 4.90 3.88
-1.00 4.45 3.42
-0.75 3.14 2.62
-0.25 2.31 1.94
0 1.98 1.70
+0.25 1.70 1.52
+0.75 1.38 1.27
+1.00 1.23 1.14
+1.25 1.18 1.11
+1.50 1.15 1.09
+1.75 1.08 1.04

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.75 4.15
-1.25 5.25 3.70
-1.00 4.50 3.45
-0.75 3.45 2.68
-0.50 2.75 2.25
-0.25 2.42 2.00
0 2.10 1.70
+0.25 1.80 1.52
+0.50 1.62 1.42
+0.75 1.45 1.30
+1.00 1.30 1.19
+1.25 1.26 1.16
+1.50 1.22 1.14

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.36 1.95
0 2.03 1.67
+0.25 1.73 1.50

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.65 2.27
+0.50 1.60 1.44

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.10 5.55
-1.50 5.35 4.30
-1.25 4.90 3.88
-1.00 4.45 3.42
-0.75 3.14 2.62
-0.25 2.28 1.94
0 1.98 1.70
+0.25 1.70 1.50
+0.75 1.38 1.27
+1.00 1.23 1.14
+1.25 1.18 1.11
+1.50 1.15 1.09
+1.75 1.08 1.04

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.43 2.76
-0.50 2.79 2.34
-0.25 2.46 2.05
0 2.12 1.75
+0.25 1.81 1.56
+0.50 1.62 1.44
+0.75 1.46 1.32
Primary Bets
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