Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Podbeskidzie
Final Score
1 – 0
(HT 1-0)
Pogoń Siedlce
Kick-off 18:30 Stadium Stadion Miejski w Bielsku Bialej

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Podbeskidzie opened at -0.25 against Pogoń Siedlce in the I Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The closing line is -0.50. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 2 valid books, with 100% agreement.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.21
Podbeskidzie -0.21

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.42 / 1.18
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Podbeskidzie -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 2 / 2 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward Pogoń Siedlce than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 valid books · 100% agreement · Insufficient

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.50
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.50
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:15
Opening
-0.25
18:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:28
PRE1
-0.50
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.53 / 3.20 -0.25 1.53 / 3.20 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.53 / 3.20 -0.25 1.53 / 3.20 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 2.97 8.00
-1.00 2.36 7.20
-0.75 1.95 4.74
-0.25 1.53 3.20
0 1.33 2.83
+0.25 1.26 2.21
+0.75 1.12 1.69
+1.00 1.03 1.49
+1.50 1.02 1.30

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 2.97 8.00
-1.00 2.36 7.20
-0.75 1.95 4.75
-0.25 1.53 3.20
0 1.33 2.83
+0.25 1.26 2.21
+0.75 1.12 1.69
+1.00 1.03 1.49
+1.50 1.02 1.30
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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