Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Chrobry Głogów
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:30
1.41 1.19
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Chrobry Głogów opened at -0.25 against Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki in the I Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.20
Chrobry Głogów -0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Chrobry Głogów -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.05
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.05 AH points more toward Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki +0.25
@ 2.75
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.05
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.94
Price Advantage
+41.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.82 / 2.52 -0.25 1.82 / 2.52 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.90 / 2.72 -0.25 1.92 / 2.75 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 2.60 -0.25 1.90 / 2.60 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.84 / 2.52 -0.25 1.84 / 2.52 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.88 / 2.57 -0.25 1.88 / 2.60 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.84 / 2.59 -0.25 1.84 / 2.59 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.20
xG 1.41 / 1.19 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.92
Chrobry Głogów @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.07
Chrobry Głogów @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.92 vs 2.07
Market price is 7.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.34 8.80
-1.50 4.10 6.50
-1.25 3.70 6.00
-1.00 3.28 5.50
-0.75 2.46 3.70
-0.25 1.84 2.52
0 1.57 2.19
+0.25 1.41 1.82
+0.75 1.20 1.43
+1.00 1.08 1.25
+1.25 1.06 1.20
+1.50 1.05 1.16

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.00 6.40
-1.25 3.55 5.90
-1.00 3.30 5.50
-0.75 2.50 3.70
-0.50 2.15 3.00
-0.25 1.90 2.60
0 1.60 2.30
+0.25 1.48 1.90
+0.50 1.38 1.68
+0.75 1.26 1.50
+1.00 1.15 1.32
+1.25 1.13 1.27
+1.50 1.12 1.23

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.84 2.59
0 1.57 2.21
+0.25 1.42 1.83

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.88 2.60
+0.25 1.45 1.85

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.35 8.80
-1.50 4.10 6.50
-1.25 3.70 6.00
-1.00 3.28 5.50
-0.75 2.46 3.70
-0.25 1.82 2.52
0 1.57 2.19
+0.25 1.41 1.80
+0.75 1.20 1.43
+1.00 1.08 1.25
+1.25 1.06 1.20
+1.50 1.05 1.16

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.60 3.97
-0.50 2.20 3.14
-0.25 1.92 2.75
0 1.61 2.34
+0.25 1.46 1.92
+0.50 1.36 1.68
+0.75 1.25 1.50
Primary Bets
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